0x2bcd…cbfb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

61% @ 54.3¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

332

Avg size

$23

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (66/111)	-23%	111
Politics	67% (12/18)	+72%	18
Sports	40% (4/10)	+68%	10
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+38%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-86%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+203%	3

Other111 bets
Hit rate
59% (66/111)
ROI
-23%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
67% (12/18)
ROI
+72%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+68%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+38%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-86%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+203%

Track record

60% hit · 90/150

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 1?	No	$35	76.5¢	Won
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	$13	56.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 2?	No	$30	83.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Yes	$6	52.9¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$3	60.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23?	No	$35	86.5¢	Won
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Miami Heretics	$45	45.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?	No	$7	44.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?	No	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$2	21.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 18?	No	$47	85.4¢	Won
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	$80	49.5¢	Won
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	Yes	$47	43.1¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$5	63.0¢	Won
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$35	32.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$6	13.2¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$10	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 16?	No	$10	84.6¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	No	$8	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?	No	$116	34.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	$7	43.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?	No	$31	84.2¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$90	37.4¢	Won
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$70	1.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	$113	74.2¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	$10	33.0¢	Won
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$3	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	$67	57.6¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?	No	$85	70.9¢	Won
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner	Top Esports	$5	37.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$111	27.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	24.4¢	Lost
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	$7	22.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	$25	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	$24	66.2¢	Won
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$26	86.0¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$63	76.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6?	No	$11	90.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$570	87.5¢	Won
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In	Ninjas in Pyjamas	$20	46.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	$98	44.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	$1	55.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	$10	74.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	$5	21.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In	Team WE	$249	47.2¢	Won
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$121	80.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers	Boston Breach	$11	22.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 1?Won
No$35 @ 76.5¢
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
Yes$13 @ 56.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 2?Won
No$30 @ 83.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 52.9¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23?Won
No$35 @ 86.5¢
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers QualifiersWon
Miami Heretics$45 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?Won
No$7 @ 44.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?Won
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 18?Won
No$47 @ 85.4¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Won
No$80 @ 49.5¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Lost
Yes$47 @ 43.1¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$5 @ 63.0¢
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
No$35 @ 32.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$6 @ 13.2¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 16?Won
No$10 @ 84.6¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?Lost
No$116 @ 34.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 43.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?Won
No$31 @ 84.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$90 @ 37.4¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 1.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Won
No$113 @ 74.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
No$1 @ 1.5¢
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$3 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?Won
No$67 @ 57.6¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?Won
No$85 @ 70.9¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 WinnerWon
Top Esports$5 @ 37.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$111 @ 27.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 24.4¢
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Lost
Yes$7 @ 22.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?Won
No$24 @ 66.2¢
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$26 @ 86.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$63 @ 76.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 6?Won
No$11 @ 90.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$570 @ 87.5¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-InLost
Ninjas in Pyjamas$20 @ 46.0¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Lost
No$98 @ 44.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 55.9¢
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events?Won
No$10 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say "Apprentice" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-InWon
Team WE$249 @ 47.2¢
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$121 @ 80.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 3 Major Qualifiers QualifiersLost
Boston Breach$11 @ 22.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Culture	No	$504	90.6¢
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?	—	Yes	$381	54.7¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$355	89.6¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$325	94.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$305	93.3¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$261	86.4¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	—	No	$254	79.3¢
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Politics	No	$201	96.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$195	93.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$185	77.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$140	93.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$125	94.2¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Politics	No	$115	96.8¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$100	95.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	No	$100	58.9¢
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$95	98.8¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Tech	No	$90	61.2¢
Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?	—	Yes	$85	58.0¢
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	—	No	$57	76.7¢
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?	—	Yes	$51	58.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$50	97.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$50	85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	—	No	$46	80.5¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?	—	Yes	$45	45.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$42	90.1¢
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?	—	Yes	$40	85.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$40	52.0¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Politics	No	$40	94.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$35	79.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$33	78.1¢

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Culture
No$504 @ 90.6¢
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?—
Yes$381 @ 54.7¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?Politics
No$355 @ 89.6¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?—
No$325 @ 94.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$305 @ 93.3¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$261 @ 86.4¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?—
No$254 @ 79.3¢
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Politics
No$201 @ 96.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$195 @ 93.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?—
No$185 @ 77.5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$140 @ 93.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$125 @ 94.2¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Politics
No$115 @ 96.8¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$100 @ 95.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 58.9¢
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$95 @ 98.8¢
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?Tech
No$90 @ 61.2¢
Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?—
Yes$85 @ 58.0¢
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?—
No$57 @ 76.7¢
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?—
Yes$51 @ 58.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 97.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?—
No$46 @ 80.5¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?—
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Geopolitics
No$42 @ 90.1¢
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?—
Yes$40 @ 85.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 52.0¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 94.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$35 @ 79.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$33 @ 78.1¢