← Smart money
0x2bc8…b4da
SharpEdge
+8.6pp
ROI
+43%
Win rate
41% @ 32.2¢
Brier
0.173
Resolved
517
Avg size
$25
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 37% (23/63) | +42% | 63 |
| Politics | 29% (5/17) | +31% | 17 |
| Crypto | 50% (2/4) | +69% | 4 |
| Sports | 67% (2/3) | +34% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +16% | 1 |
- Other63 bets
- Hit rate
- 37% (23/63)
- ROI
- +42%
- Politics17 bets
- Hit rate
- 29% (5/17)
- ROI
- +31%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +69%
- Sports3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +34%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +16%
Track record
38% hit · 33/88- Yes$81 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
- No$43 @ 86.0¢
- No$780 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$60 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$223 @ 54.5¢
- No$81 @ 81.2¢
- Yes$90 @ 19.7¢
- Yes$198 @ 14.3¢
- Yes$32 @ 8.1¢
- Yes$111 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$203 @ 50.5¢
- Yes$59 @ 19.8¢
- No$34 @ 17.0¢
- Yes$14 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$23 @ 1.6¢
- No$750 @ 41.6¢
- Yes$162 @ 81.0¢
- No$179 @ 89.6¢
- Yes$16 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$61 @ 43.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$394 @ 38.1¢
- Yes$19 @ 3.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$21 @ 6.8¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 53.3¢
- No$716 @ 79.5¢
- Yes$18 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$132 @ 14.7¢
- No$698 @ 87.3¢
- No$279 @ 29.4¢
- Yes$15 @ 7.4¢
- Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
- Yes$290 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$53 @ 1.8¢
- No$921 @ 82.8¢
- Yes$24 @ 2.6¢
- No$120 @ 30.0¢
- No$33 @ 25.7¢
- Yes$126 @ 62.2¢
- Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$38 @ 56.0¢
- No$34 @ 35.8¢
- Yes$13 @ 26.0¢
- No$230 @ 32.8¢
- No$69 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$87 @ 29.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? | — | Yes | $495 | 93.8¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $393 | 15.8¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Politics | Yes | $292 | 36.5¢ |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | Politics | Yes | $289 | 22.2¢ |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $196 | 70.1¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Geopolitics | Yes | $191 | 15.9¢ |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $98 | 19.3¢ |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $94 | 47.0¢ |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $39 | 19.7¢ |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $20 | 10.0¢ |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Sports | Yes | $0 | 0.0¢ |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | Sports | Austria | $0 | 0.0¢ |
| Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score | — | Yes | $0 | 0.0¢ |
- Yes$495 @ 93.8¢
- Yes$393 @ 15.8¢
- Yes$292 @ 36.5¢
- Yes$289 @ 22.2¢
- Yes$196 @ 70.1¢
- Yes$191 @ 15.9¢
- Yes$98 @ 19.3¢
- Yes$94 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$39 @ 19.7¢
- Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
- Spread: Argentina (-2.5)SportsAustria$0 @ 0.0¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.0¢