0x2bae…2e92

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2bae96f2e37f5474016f754c0ade0f6012892e92
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

46% @ 41.0¢

Brier

0.224

Resolved

1454

Avg size

$31

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (199/413)	+11%	413
Politics	71% (10/14)	+4%	14
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+50%	2

Other413 bets
Hit rate
48% (199/413)
ROI
+11%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
71% (10/14)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+50%

Track record

49% hit · 211/429

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$47	47.0¢	Won
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	$20	60.1¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	$57	23.0¢	Lost
Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	$58	72.9¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$100	56.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	$20	66.0¢	Won
Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?	Yes	$15	60.0¢	Won
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?	No	$64	85.7¢	Won
Astros vs. Angels	Angels	$19	38.0¢	Lost
Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois	Central Michigan	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?	Yes	$38	30.0¢	Lost
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$53	52.8¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	Yes	$16	32.0¢	Won
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?	Yes	$50	10.1¢	Lost
Reds vs. Astros	Reds	$18	44.0¢	Lost
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Won
UConn vs. North Carolina	North Carolina	$5	27.0¢	Lost
Utah vs. UCF	Utah	$20	25.0¢	Won
Missouri vs. Auburn	Auburn	$10	48.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?	Yes	$18	73.0¢	Won
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?	Yes	$20	10.1¢	Lost
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern	Purdue Boilermakers	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$438	18.8¢	Won
Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State	Georgia Southern	$118	44.4¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$2.0k	61.3¢	Won
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$179	44.2¢	Won
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)	Steel	$75	14.9¢	Lost
Stanford vs. San José State	Stanford	$5	46.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$940	70.6¢	Won
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?	Yes	$33	66.0¢	Lost
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?	Yes	$19	19.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Russia before July?	Yes	$213	74.8¢	Lost
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview?	Yes	$26	52.5¢	Lost
Oregon State vs. Boise State	Oregon State	$4	11.0¢	Lost
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?	Yes	$69	69.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?	Yes	$8	42.0¢	Won
Cardinals vs. Nationals	Cardinals	$10	52.0¢	Won
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?	Yes	$19	75.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?	Yes	$31	20.3¢	Lost
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April?	No	$39	55.0¢	Won
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?	Yes	$57	72.0¢	Lost
House control after 2024 election?	Republican	$52	47.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$22	43.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?	Yes	$10	27.3¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?	Yes	$291	26.4¢	Lost

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$47 @ 47.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Won
Yes$20 @ 60.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 23.0¢
Blue wave in 2026?Won
Yes$58 @ 72.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 66.0¢
Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?Won
Yes$15 @ 60.0¢
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Won
No$64 @ 85.7¢
Astros vs. AngelsLost
Angels$19 @ 38.0¢
Central Michigan vs. Northern IllinoisLost
Central Michigan$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?Lost
Yes$38 @ 30.0¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Won
Yes$53 @ 52.8¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Won
Yes$16 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.1¢
Reds vs. AstrosLost
Reds$18 @ 44.0¢
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
UConn vs. North CarolinaLost
North Carolina$5 @ 27.0¢
Utah vs. UCFWon
Utah$20 @ 25.0¢
Missouri vs. AuburnLost
Auburn$10 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Won
Yes$18 @ 73.0¢
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.1¢
Purdue Boilermakers vs. NorthwesternLost
Purdue Boilermakers$4 @ 41.0¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$438 @ 18.8¢
Georgia Southern vs. Fresno StateLost
Georgia Southern$118 @ 44.4¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 61.3¢
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$179 @ 44.2¢
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)Lost
Steel$75 @ 14.9¢
Stanford vs. San José StateLost
Stanford$5 @ 46.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$940 @ 70.6¢
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?Lost
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?Lost
Yes$19 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump visit Russia before July?Lost
Yes$213 @ 74.8¢
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview?Lost
Yes$26 @ 52.5¢
Oregon State vs. Boise StateLost
Oregon State$4 @ 11.0¢
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Won
Yes$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?Won
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Cardinals vs. NationalsWon
Cardinals$10 @ 52.0¢
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Won
Yes$19 @ 75.0¢
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?Lost
Yes$31 @ 20.3¢
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April?Won
No$39 @ 55.0¢
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?Lost
Yes$57 @ 72.0¢
House control after 2024 election?Won
Republican$52 @ 47.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$22 @ 43.0¢
Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week?Lost
Yes$10 @ 27.3¢
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$291 @ 26.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	56.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	Yes	$96	48.0¢
Blue wave in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$58	72.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	23.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$47	47.0¢
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$21	43.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	Yes	$20	60.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	66.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 56.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
Yes$96 @ 48.0¢
Blue wave in 2026?Politics
Yes$58 @ 72.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 23.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$47 @ 47.0¢
Blue tsunami in 2026?Politics
Yes$21 @ 43.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
Yes$20 @ 60.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 66.0¢