0x2b30…ce6b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2b301194e987bfb4afe6d0db4b5f5ae83bdcce6b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+20.2pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

59% @ 39.3¢

Brier

0.201

Resolved

481

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (14/25)	+80%	25
Other	27% (3/11)	-51%	11
Sports	13% (1/8)	+92%	8
Tech	75% (3/4)	+38%	4
Economy	67% (2/3)	+71%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-4%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics25 bets
Hit rate
56% (14/25)
ROI
+80%
Other11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-51%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
+92%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+38%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+71%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-4%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 24/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$0	11.0¢	Lost
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	$5	45.0¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	$6	95.0¢	Won
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	17.0¢	Lost
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	36.5¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$20	9.8¢	Lost
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	Yes	$9	65.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$8	34.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$53	70.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	20.0¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$33	66.2¢	Lost
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	$18	47.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	52.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$22	57.3¢	Won
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	29.7¢	Won
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$25	46.8¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$25	57.9¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$50	82.3¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$209	56.9¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$58	43.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	89.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	52.2¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$5	89.6¢	Won
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$16	88.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$6	42.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	$25	43.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$244	48.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$7	18.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$47	79.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Yes	$24	17.0¢	Lost
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	17.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	$44	52.1¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by December 31?	Yes	$39	75.3¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$5	38.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	$42	72.8¢	Won
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?	Yes	$17	10.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	$21	86.8¢	Won

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 11.0¢
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?Won
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Won
Yes$6 @ 95.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 17.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 36.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.8¢
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 65.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 34.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 70.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 20.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 66.2¢
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Won
Yes$18 @ 47.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 52.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$22 @ 57.3¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 29.7¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 46.8¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$25 @ 57.9¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
Yes$50 @ 82.3¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$209 @ 56.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$58 @ 43.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 52.2¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$16 @ 88.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$6 @ 42.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$25 @ 43.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$244 @ 48.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 79.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$24 @ 17.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 17.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?Lost
Yes$44 @ 52.1¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?Won
Yes$39 @ 75.3¢
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Won
Yes$42 @ 72.8¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Won
Yes$17 @ 10.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 86.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$11	21.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	28.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$11	76.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$8	52.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$7	41.9¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	29.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$7	83.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$6	60.9¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$6	92.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$5	77.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	19.5¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	Yes	$5	25.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$4	36.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	70.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$4	70.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$4	22.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$4	66.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$4	82.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4	32.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$3	58.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	13.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	19.1¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$2	25.1¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2	13.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$2	9.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$2	26.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$1	68.0¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Politics	Yes	$1	57.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1	86.4¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$11 @ 21.7¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 28.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$11 @ 76.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$8 @ 52.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$7 @ 41.9¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 29.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$7 @ 83.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$6 @ 60.9¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$6 @ 92.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 19.5¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
Yes$5 @ 25.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 36.2¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$4 @ 22.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$4 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$4 @ 82.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 32.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 19.1¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 25.1¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2 @ 13.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Economy
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics
Yes$1 @ 57.2¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1 @ 86.4¢