0x2ad9…0eae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2ad98511fe2272dca56d6d24bad616ecd7920eae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+9.1pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

61% @ 51.5¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

1484

Avg size

$65

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (104/215)	-5%	215
Sports	55% (83/151)	+25%	151
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other215 bets
Hit rate
48% (104/215)
ROI
-5%
Sports151 bets
Hit rate
55% (83/151)
ROI
+25%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

51% hit · 188/368

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will AloisNL Win the ADC Race 2026?	No	$438	76.2¢	Won
Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	73.5¢	Won
Will Team Liquid Win LCS 2026 Summer Split	Yes	$801	41.7¢	Won
Will LYON Win LCS 2026 Summer Split	Yes	$1.8k	43.8¢	Lost
Will Thanatos Penta in LCS Split 3 2026?	No	$20	94.0¢	Won
Will LYON Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final?	Yes	$12	62.0¢	Won
LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	Solary	$212	36.0¢	Lost
LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs	T1 Academy	$67	34.0¢	Won
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Karmine Corp	$214	82.1¢	Won
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner	Estar Backs	$103	16.3¢	Lost
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner	PlayTime	$8	84.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner	Carstensz	$506	38.8¢	Lost
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner	Execration	$169	62.2¢	Won
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$22	70.6¢	Lost
Will Team Liquid Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	$1.6k	82.5¢	Won
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	70.7¢	Won
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5)	Sashi Esport	$205	64.0¢	Lost
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner	Enjoy	$9	61.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner	Team Bald	$97	38.0¢	Lost
Will MVK Esports win LCP 2026 Split 2?	No	$53	88.4¢	Won
Will MVK Esports win LCP 2026 Split 2?	Yes	$1	11.8¢	Lost
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	30.0¢	Lost
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep?	No	$13	89.0¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$170	34.0¢	Won
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?	No	$2	68.4¢	Won
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?	Yes	$36	36.0¢	Lost
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25	68.5¢	Lost
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	55.0¢	Lost
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify for EWC 2026?	Yes	$111	73.7¢	Won
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	No	$112	80.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Qualifier Playoffs	Team Secret Whales	$135	74.9¢	Won
Will there be 4+ Pentakills at MSI?	Yes	$12	11.9¢	Lost
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	Frites Esports Club	$425	85.0¢	Lost
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	$40	2.8¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$503	56.0¢	Won
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026?	No	$5	8.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner	TEAM VISION	$805	83.3¢	Lost
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$163	78.0¢	Won
Will Nisha be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?	Yes	$17	8.5¢	Lost
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Over	$2	14.2¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$4	1.9¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In	Karmine Corp Blue	$87	89.0¢	Won
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	$8	81.0¢	Lost
Will ATF be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?	No	$13	87.0¢	Won
Will ATF be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?	Yes	$8	4.7¢	Lost
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	Dplus KIA Challengers	$480	32.8¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	T1 Academy	$509	39.6¢	Lost
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	Grind Back	$180	36.0¢	Lost

Will AloisNL Win the ADC Race 2026?Won
No$438 @ 76.2¢
Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 73.5¢
Will Team Liquid Win LCS 2026 Summer SplitWon
Yes$801 @ 41.7¢
Will LYON Win LCS 2026 Summer SplitLost
Yes$1.8k @ 43.8¢
Will Thanatos Penta in LCS Split 3 2026?Won
No$20 @ 94.0¢
Will LYON Make the LCS 2026 Summer Grand Final?Won
Yes$12 @ 62.0¢
LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational PlayoffsLost
Solary$212 @ 36.0¢
LoL: Solary vs T1 Academy (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational PlayoffsWon
T1 Academy$67 @ 34.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerWon
Karmine Corp$214 @ 82.1¢
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerLost
Estar Backs$103 @ 16.3¢
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 WinnerWon
PlayTime$8 @ 84.0¢
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerLost
Carstensz$506 @ 38.8¢
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerWon
Execration$169 @ 62.2¢
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$22 @ 70.6¢
Will Team Liquid Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout StageLost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsWon
Hanwha Life Esports$1.6k @ 82.5¢
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$21 @ 70.7¢
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5)Lost
Sashi Esport$205 @ 64.0¢
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 WinnerWon
Enjoy$9 @ 61.0¢
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 WinnerLost
Team Bald$97 @ 38.0¢
Will MVK Esports win LCP 2026 Split 2?Won
No$53 @ 88.4¢
Will MVK Esports win LCP 2026 Split 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.8¢
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 30.0¢
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep?Won
No$13 @ 89.0¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Won
Under$170 @ 34.0¢
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?Won
No$2 @ 68.4¢
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?Lost
Yes$36 @ 36.0¢
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$25 @ 68.5¢
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 55.0¢
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify for EWC 2026?Won
Yes$111 @ 73.7¢
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Lost
No$112 @ 80.0¢
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Asia-Pacific Qualifier PlayoffsWon
Team Secret Whales$135 @ 74.9¢
Will there be 4+ Pentakills at MSI?Lost
Yes$12 @ 11.9¢
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss StageLost
Frites Esports Club$425 @ 85.0¢
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?Won
Yes$40 @ 2.8¢
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
Yes$503 @ 56.0¢
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 8.1¢
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 WinnerLost
TEAM VISION$805 @ 83.3¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Won
Under$163 @ 78.0¢
Will Nisha be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?Lost
Yes$17 @ 8.5¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$2 @ 14.2¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-InWon
Karmine Corp Blue$87 @ 89.0¢
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Lost
Yes$8 @ 81.0¢
Will ATF be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?Won
No$13 @ 87.0¢
Will ATF be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.7¢
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters PlayoffsWon
Dplus KIA Challengers$480 @ 32.8¢
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters PlayoffsLost
T1 Academy$509 @ 39.6¢
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 WinnerLost
Grind Back$180 @ 36.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$7.9k	88.1¢
Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	—	Yes	$2.2k	52.4¢
Will tkzin have the most kills on a single map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$1.2k	82.3¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$1.0k	69.0¢
Will KT Rolster win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?	Sports	Yes	$754	49.3¢
Will League of Legends Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award?	—	Yes	$563	56.0¢
Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2	—	Yes	$363	28.5¢
Will a Player Pick Teemo in a Tier 1 League/Event this Year?	Sports	No	$355	88.2¢
Will Summit be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$351	40.9¢
Will Invictus Gaming Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$310	97.7¢
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?	Sports	Yes	$273	70.4¢
Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$242	39.8¢
Will the BLAST Slam VIII Grand Final be a reverse sweep?	Sports	No	$212	82.7¢
Will THUNDER TALK GAMING make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$206	69.1¢
Will the BLAST Slam VIII champion win every Playoffs map?	Sports	No	$180	78.1¢
Will Suzhou LNG Esports make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$153	72.7¢
Will trent have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$145	35.3¢
Will RED Kalunga Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	No	$140	98.8¢
Will something (PRX) have the most kills for Paper Rex at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$115	98.9¢
Will BILIBILI GAMING Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$103	87.0¢
Will Haven be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$101	33.0¢
Will MVK Esports Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$97	98.0¢
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026?	Sports	No	$95	84.6¢
Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Sports	Yes	$79	73.4¢
Will EFG Win the 2026 Esports Tournament Organiser of the Year Award?	Sports	Yes	$72	32.8¢
Will LYON Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$67	92.4¢
Will Chovy leave Gen.G in 2026?	Sports	No	$67	82.1¢
Will Karmine Corp Qualify for Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$48	99.0¢
Will Red Bull Win the 2026 Esports Commercial Partner of the Year Award?	Sports	Yes	$48	48.0¢
Will Gen.G Esports make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$47	78.2¢

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$7.9k @ 88.1¢
Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2—
Yes$2.2k @ 52.4¢
Will tkzin have the most kills on a single map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$1.2k @ 82.3¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$1.0k @ 69.0¢
Will KT Rolster win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?Sports
Yes$754 @ 49.3¢
Will League of Legends Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award?—
Yes$563 @ 56.0¢
Will FURIA Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2—
Yes$363 @ 28.5¢
Will a Player Pick Teemo in a Tier 1 League/Event this Year?Sports
No$355 @ 88.2¢
Will Summit be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$351 @ 40.9¢
Will Invictus Gaming Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$310 @ 97.7¢
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?Sports
Yes$273 @ 70.4¢
Will mada have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$242 @ 39.8¢
Will the BLAST Slam VIII Grand Final be a reverse sweep?Sports
No$212 @ 82.7¢
Will THUNDER TALK GAMING make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$206 @ 69.1¢
Will the BLAST Slam VIII champion win every Playoffs map?Sports
No$180 @ 78.1¢
Will Suzhou LNG Esports make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$153 @ 72.7¢
Will trent have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$145 @ 35.3¢
Will RED Kalunga Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
No$140 @ 98.8¢
Will something (PRX) have the most kills for Paper Rex at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$115 @ 98.9¢
Will BILIBILI GAMING Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$103 @ 87.0¢
Will Haven be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$101 @ 33.0¢
Will MVK Esports Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$97 @ 98.0¢
Will Faker Win an International Title in 2026?Sports
No$95 @ 84.6¢
Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?Sports
Yes$79 @ 73.4¢
Will EFG Win the 2026 Esports Tournament Organiser of the Year Award?Sports
Yes$72 @ 32.8¢
Will LYON Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$67 @ 92.4¢
Will Chovy leave Gen.G in 2026?Sports
No$67 @ 82.1¢
Will Karmine Corp Qualify for Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$48 @ 99.0¢
Will Red Bull Win the 2026 Esports Commercial Partner of the Year Award?Sports
Yes$48 @ 48.0¢
Will Gen.G Esports make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$47 @ 78.2¢