0x2a21…d26a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2a21d3bccb4d025608ab0b54f7848d6dd83fd26a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+0.7pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

3% @ 2.2¢

Brier

0.019

Resolved

2033

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (11/65)	-5%	65
Tech	45% (9/20)	+152%	20
Politics	9% (1/11)	+40%	11
Business	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other65 bets
Hit rate
17% (11/65)
ROI
-5%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
+152%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
+40%
Business4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

20% hit · 21/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?	Yes	$11	4.0¢	Lost
Anthropic CEO arrested?	Yes	$10	4.1¢	Lost
Will United Thai Nation Party (UTN) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$15	50.0¢	Won
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	Yes	$14	23.3¢	Won
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$24	16.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	No	$25	2.2¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$51	2.8¢	Lost
Will Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	22.0¢	Lost
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?	Yes	$26	50.4¢	Won
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?	Yes	$52	9.5¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Won
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?	No	$14	28.0¢	Won
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30?	Yes	$20	9.8¢	Lost
Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?	Yes	$62	13.7¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$5	3.7¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?	Yes	$2	6.8¢	Lost
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?	Yes	$36	3.6¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?	Yes	$14	35.0¢	Won
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by June 30?	Yes	$17	33.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?	Yes	$49	12.2¢	Lost
Will Chart Thai Pattana Party (CTPP) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?	Yes	$30	9.9¢	Lost
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?	Yes	$21	42.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?	Yes	$27	54.0¢	Won
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$25	10.0¢	Lost
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will Elhadj Bouna Keita win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	Yes	$24	23.5¢	Lost
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by December 31?	Yes	$14	71.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	Yes	$11	6.9¢	Lost
Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	$12	0.1¢	Lost
Will Faya Lansana Millimono win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ibrahima Abé Sylla win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?	Yes	$15	41.8¢	Lost
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	Yes	$60	29.2¢	Won
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$10	0.7¢	Lost
Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 4.0¢
Anthropic CEO arrested?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.1¢
Will United Thai Nation Party (UTN) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 50.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 23.3¢
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$24 @ 16.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
No$25 @ 2.2¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$51 @ 2.8¢
Will Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 22.0¢
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?Won
Yes$26 @ 50.4¢
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?Lost
Yes$52 @ 9.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?Won
No$14 @ 28.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.8¢
Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?Lost
Yes$62 @ 13.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.7¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.8¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?Lost
Yes$36 @ 3.6¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 35.0¢
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?Lost
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by June 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?Lost
Yes$49 @ 12.2¢
Will Chart Thai Pattana Party (CTPP) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 9.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 42.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by June 30?Won
Yes$27 @ 54.0¢
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$25 @ 10.0¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will Elhadj Bouna Keita win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 23.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 71.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.9¢
Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?Lost
Yes$12 @ 0.1¢
Will Faya Lansana Millimono win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Ibrahima Abé Sylla win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 41.8¢
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?Won
Yes$60 @ 29.2¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.7¢
Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$18	9.5¢
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	3.4¢
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	3.4¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$9	9.3¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Other	Yes	$8	7.2¢
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	5.1¢
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	5.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$7	9.0¢
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	4.4¢
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	2.9¢
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$6	8.2¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	2.6¢
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	3.2¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Other	Yes	$5	9.1¢
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	2.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	7.8¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$4	10.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	4.3¢
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	3.4¢
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	2.6¢
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2	6.0¢
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2	8.6¢
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	1.3¢
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1	5.5¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1	5.0¢
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	5.1¢

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Tech
Yes$18 @ 9.5¢
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 3.4¢
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 3.4¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?Tech
Yes$9 @ 9.3¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Other
Yes$8 @ 7.2¢
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 5.1¢
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 5.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 4.4¢
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 2.9¢
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$6 @ 8.2¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 3.2¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Other
Yes$5 @ 9.1¢
Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 7.8¢
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$4 @ 10.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 4.3¢
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 3.4¢
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 2.6¢
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$2 @ 8.6¢
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 5.1¢