← Smart money
0x2a02…ddaa
ProfitableEdge
+47.5pp
ROI
+99%
Win rate
86% @ 38.7¢
Brier
0.278
Resolved
58
Avg size
$47
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (3/6) | +106% | 6 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +19% | 1 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (3/6)
- ROI
- +106%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +19%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 4/8| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | No | $1 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | No | $2.4k | 48.1¢ | Won |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | $10 | 16.0¢ | Lost |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | $10 | 0.2¢ | Lost |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | $211 | 84.2¢ | Won |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | $33 | 70.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | $10 | 24.1¢ | Won |
| Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | $10 | 2.4¢ | Lost |
- No$1 @ 0.1¢
- No$2.4k @ 48.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
- No$10 @ 0.2¢
- No$211 @ 84.2¢
- No$33 @ 70.0¢
- No$10 @ 24.1¢
- No$10 @ 2.4¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 10? | — | Down | $10 | 8.0¢ |
- Down$10 @ 8.0¢