0x296b…2cf2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x296bd652f74deac6a8bd9bcb04265f3a65fd2cf2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+17.0pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

54% @ 36.9¢

Brier

0.241

Resolved

1524

Avg size

$92

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (94/253)	+8%	253
Politics	55% (12/22)	+190%	22
Sports	31% (4/13)	+24%	13

Other253 bets
Hit rate
37% (94/253)
ROI
+8%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
+190%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
+24%

Track record

38% hit · 110/288

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	Yes	$46	7.6¢	Lost
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?	Yes	$45	9.0¢	Lost
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023?	No	$953	87.2¢	Won
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?	No	$7	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$129	58.4¢	Won
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$45	64.5¢	Lost
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?	No	$146	73.0¢	Won
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?	Yes	$104	52.0¢	Lost
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?	Yes	$162	75.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	$41	40.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$13	4.4¢	Lost
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4?	Yes	$2.0k	70.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$103	40.6¢	Lost
US inflation >0.1% from Jan to Feb 2024?	Yes	$182	73.7¢	Won
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Chiefs	$145	41.6¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$66	22.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$295	62.2¢	Won
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Yes	$1	46.7¢	Won
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?	Yes	$9.2k	74.2¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	$33	2.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	No	$46	11.6¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?	Yes	$14	5.7¢	Lost
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?	Yes	$110	55.0¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$1.6k	37.9¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$71	71.0¢	Won
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$130	64.9¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$15	0.5¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$338	47.0¢	Won
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%	Yes	$532	69.0¢	Won
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Colombia	$45	44.0¢	Won
2024 August hottest on record?	No	$202	33.7¢	Lost
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$51	59.0¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by July 31?	Yes	$294	8.7¢	Lost
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	$61	75.5¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June?	Yes	$39	13.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$7	6.7¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by June 12?	Yes	$4.6k	55.8¢	Lost
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023?	No	$36	9.0¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July?	Yes	$23	4.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$6	6.3¢	Lost
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$42	1.4¢	Lost
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10?	Yes	$1.1k	70.9¢	Won
Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?	No	$33	3.3¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?	Yes	$38	38.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$47	58.5¢	Lost
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Yes	$393	32.7¢	Lost
Will the unemployment rate for February be less than or equal to 3.9%?	Yes	$61	14.0¢	Lost
2024 July hottest on record?	No	$350	58.3¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Lost
Yes$46 @ 7.6¢
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?Lost
Yes$45 @ 9.0¢
Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2023?Won
No$953 @ 87.2¢
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?Lost
No$7 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$129 @ 58.4¢
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
Yes$45 @ 64.5¢
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?Won
No$146 @ 73.0¢
US inflation >0.1% from April to May 2024?Lost
Yes$104 @ 52.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?Lost
Yes$162 @ 75.5¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Won
No$41 @ 40.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.4¢
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 4?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 70.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$103 @ 40.6¢
US inflation >0.1% from Jan to Feb 2024?Won
Yes$182 @ 73.7¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerLost
Chiefs$145 @ 41.6¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$66 @ 22.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$295 @ 62.2¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?Won
Yes$1 @ 46.7¢
Will 2024 have the hottest February on record?Won
Yes$9.2k @ 74.2¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$33 @ 2.8¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
No$46 @ 11.6¢
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?Lost
Yes$14 @ 5.7¢
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?Won
Yes$110 @ 55.0¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 37.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?Won
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$130 @ 64.9¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$15 @ 0.5¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$338 @ 47.0¢
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 10-12.5%Won
Yes$532 @ 69.0¢
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)Won
Colombia$45 @ 44.0¢
2024 August hottest on record?Lost
No$202 @ 33.7¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
France$51 @ 59.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 31?Lost
Yes$294 @ 8.7¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Won
Yes$61 @ 75.5¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June?Lost
Yes$39 @ 13.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 6.7¢
Fed rate cut by June 12?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 55.8¢
Will the final global heat increase be 1.13 or greater for 2023?Lost
No$36 @ 9.0¢
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July?Lost
Yes$23 @ 4.7¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.3¢
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$42 @ 1.4¢
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 70.9¢
Will National Rally win the most seats in the National Assembly?Lost
No$33 @ 3.3¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?Lost
Yes$38 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$47 @ 58.5¢
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Lost
Yes$393 @ 32.7¢
Will the unemployment rate for February be less than or equal to 3.9%?Lost
Yes$61 @ 14.0¢
2024 July hottest on record?Lost
No$350 @ 58.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$125	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$125	50.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Politics	Yes	$60	75.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$7	3.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$7	36.6¢

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$125 @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$125 @ 50.0¢
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Politics
Yes$60 @ 75.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 36.6¢