0x28b2…eb4f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x28b291aa82da13e1d58993873806c92908d5eb4f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.2pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

42% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

3087

Avg size

$74

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (67/129)	+8%	129
Tech	51% (39/76)	+18%	76
Politics	53% (40/76)	+16%	76
Geopolitics	36% (4/11)	-25%	11
Sports	56% (5/9)	+150%	9
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+256%	1

Other129 bets
Hit rate
52% (67/129)
ROI
+8%
Tech76 bets
Hit rate
51% (39/76)
ROI
+18%
Politics76 bets
Hit rate
53% (40/76)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-25%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+150%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+256%

Track record

52% hit · 156/302

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	$202	78.5¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$115	19.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$17	5.3¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$570	81.4¢	Won
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$92	47.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$42	7.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$20	4.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$1.7k	74.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$101	65.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$780	88.8¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$1.2k	88.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1.9k	80.4¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	No	$81	89.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	73.9¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	60.7¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$531	14.8¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	No	$315	87.4¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	Yes	$372	62.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$513	79.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.3k	79.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.9k	46.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$811	81.0¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$61	3.8¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$246	82.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$2.5k	84.3¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$603	55.4¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	86.6¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$93	1.7¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$35	14.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	No	$3.3k	66.1¢	Won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	$496	62.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$673	85.3¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$574	66.6¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?	Yes	$171	87.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	9.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	Yes	$289	23.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$766	68.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$95	9.5¢	Lost
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$1.1k	70.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	40.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	89.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	Yes	$254	83.4¢	Won
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$191	43.4¢	Lost
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?	Yes	$10	3.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$370	70.7¢	Won
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won

Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?Won
Yes$202 @ 78.5¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$115 @ 19.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.3¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$570 @ 81.4¢
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$92 @ 47.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$1.7k @ 74.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 65.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$780 @ 88.8¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1.9k @ 80.4¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Won
No$81 @ 89.5¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 73.9¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 60.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$531 @ 14.8¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Won
No$315 @ 87.4¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Lost
Yes$372 @ 62.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$513 @ 79.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.3k @ 79.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 46.3¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$811 @ 81.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$61 @ 3.8¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$246 @ 82.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$2.5k @ 84.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$603 @ 55.4¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 86.6¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$93 @ 1.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 14.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Won
No$3.3k @ 66.1¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?Lost
Yes$496 @ 62.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$673 @ 85.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$574 @ 66.6¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Won
Yes$171 @ 87.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 9.2¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$289 @ 23.2¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$766 @ 68.5¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$95 @ 9.5¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 70.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 40.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 89.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$254 @ 83.4¢
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$191 @ 43.4¢
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$370 @ 70.7¢
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Tech	No	$2.9k	87.1¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.1k	85.6¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Tech	No	$971	91.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$940	85.5¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Tech	No	$870	68.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Tech	No	$803	80.9¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$496	66.8¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	No	$444	83.7¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Tech	No	$304	72.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$263	63.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Tech	Yes	$182	60.8¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$168	56.0¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$108	95.1¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$95	83.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$92	21.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Tech	Yes	$87	70.6¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$79	94.0¢
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$39	89.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$30	38.5¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	74.0¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	4.0¢
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$3	3.4¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	4.9¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	0.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	0.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	3.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Tech	No	$1	44.0¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.3¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.3¢

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech
No$2.9k @ 87.1¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.1k @ 85.6¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?Tech
No$971 @ 91.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$940 @ 85.5¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?Tech
No$870 @ 68.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech
No$803 @ 80.9¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$496 @ 66.8¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
No$444 @ 83.7¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Tech
No$304 @ 72.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$263 @ 63.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech
Yes$182 @ 60.8¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$168 @ 56.0¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$108 @ 95.1¢
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech
Yes$95 @ 83.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$92 @ 21.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech
Yes$87 @ 70.6¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$79 @ 94.0¢
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$39 @ 89.0¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$30 @ 38.5¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 74.0¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 4.9¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢