0x2884…d0c3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2884f98185d2005691d245f3e2e70b15d1e1d0c3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+36.8pp

ROI

+117%

Win rate

78% @ 41.4¢

Brier

0.390

Resolved

220

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (10/18)	+117%	18
Politics	50% (5/10)	+26%	10

Other18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
+117%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+26%

Track record

54% hit · 15/28

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$201	30.1¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$47	67.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$1	85.3¢	Won
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$351	69.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$59	4.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$147	82.6¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$485	21.5¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$5	23.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$27	47.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$118	52.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$68	19.6¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$16	77.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	88.8¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?	No	$24	85.3¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	15.8¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$99	64.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	38.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	No	$3	50.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	Yes	$14	25.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?	No	$76	46.3¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$70	26.9¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$71	82.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	No	$23	20.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$47	78.7¢	Lost
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?	No	$8	85.0¢	Won
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	14.5¢	Lost

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Lost
Yes$201 @ 30.1¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$47 @ 67.1¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$1 @ 85.3¢
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$351 @ 69.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$59 @ 4.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$147 @ 82.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$485 @ 21.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 47.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$118 @ 52.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$68 @ 19.6¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 77.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 88.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Won
No$24 @ 85.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
No$99 @ 64.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 38.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Lost
No$3 @ 50.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Won
Yes$14 @ 25.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?Won
No$76 @ 46.3¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$70 @ 26.9¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$71 @ 82.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 20.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 78.7¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 85.0¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	—	Yes	$3.8k	89.4¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	27.4¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	—	No	$1.2k	51.2¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	—	No	$839	77.7¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?	—	No	$721	89.6¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$603	87.7¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	—	No	$341	63.1¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$264	76.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$252	63.6¢
Will Waymo launch in Detroit, MI by December 31 2026?	—	No	$220	85.5¢
Will Waymo launch in Minneapolis, MN by December 31 2026?	—	No	$206	91.1¢
Will Waymo launch in Tokyo, Japan by December 31 2026?	—	No	$197	83.6¢
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026?	—	No	$161	69.1¢
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026?	—	No	$157	86.5¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$150	86.7¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$141	82.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$137	79.7¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$134	87.8¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$130	86.8¢
Will Waymo launch in New York, NY by December 31 2026?	—	No	$112	83.1¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	—	No	$103	44.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$100	71.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$94	32.5¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$89	86.6¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$81	75.4¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$74	92.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$72	27.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$60	82.5¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$59	94.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	62.0¢

Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?—
Yes$3.8k @ 89.4¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 27.4¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?—
No$1.2k @ 51.2¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?—
No$839 @ 77.7¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?—
No$721 @ 89.6¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?Geopolitics
No$603 @ 87.7¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?—
No$341 @ 63.1¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$264 @ 76.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$252 @ 63.6¢
Will Waymo launch in Detroit, MI by December 31 2026?—
No$220 @ 85.5¢
Will Waymo launch in Minneapolis, MN by December 31 2026?—
No$206 @ 91.1¢
Will Waymo launch in Tokyo, Japan by December 31 2026?—
No$197 @ 83.6¢
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026?—
No$161 @ 69.1¢
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026?—
No$157 @ 86.5¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
No$150 @ 86.7¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
No$141 @ 82.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$137 @ 79.7¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$134 @ 87.8¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$130 @ 86.8¢
Will Waymo launch in New York, NY by December 31 2026?—
No$112 @ 83.1¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?—
No$103 @ 44.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$100 @ 71.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$94 @ 32.5¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 86.6¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$81 @ 75.4¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
No$74 @ 92.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$72 @ 27.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 82.5¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$59 @ 94.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 62.0¢