0x25c2…7458

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x25c2a7c4d7f3ef5e4af3eb93a1b7f7056ca37458
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+165%

Win rate

15% @ 8.7¢

Brier

0.104

Resolved

106

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	15% (4/27)	+58%	27
Politics	20% (1/5)	+181%	5
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+39%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+931%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
15% (4/27)
ROI
+58%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+181%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+39%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+931%

Track record

18% hit · 7/39

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$15	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$17	0.5¢	Lost
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$51	3.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$12	1.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15?	No	$24	3.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$21	0.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$80	11.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$117	41.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	53.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$8	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$92	9.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$25	2.6¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$200	32.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	$55	5.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$94	53.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	$21	1.7¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?	No	$16	1.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Team Falcons	$31	4.7¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$23	3.8¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$233	9.7¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A	Rune Eaters	$46	6.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A	Team Novaq	$21	14.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$37	2.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	No	$127	0.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	0.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	$85	10.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	$153	32.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	No	$59	0.8¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19?	No	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$12	15.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$5	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$240	28.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	No	$5	0.2¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerLost
Spirit$4 @ 9.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$17 @ 0.5¢
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$51 @ 3.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$12 @ 1.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15?Lost
No$24 @ 3.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 0.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 0.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$80 @ 11.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$117 @ 41.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$92 @ 9.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$25 @ 2.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$200 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Lost
No$55 @ 5.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$94 @ 53.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 1.7¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15?Lost
No$16 @ 1.1¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerLost
Team Falcons$31 @ 4.7¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 3.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$233 @ 9.7¢
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group ALost
Rune Eaters$46 @ 6.1¢
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group AWon
Team Novaq$21 @ 14.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 2.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Lost
No$127 @ 0.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 0.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsLost
Spirit$85 @ 10.1¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsWon
Team Falcons$153 @ 32.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?Lost
No$59 @ 0.8¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19?Lost
No$2 @ 1.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$240 @ 28.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 0.2¢

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