0x25b5…f115

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x25b5cb0148cae5e30a392b6566d33f60b8f8f115
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.9pp

ROI

+58%

Win rate

72% @ 56.5¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

Avg size

$92

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (24/35)	+54%	35
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+51%	2
Politics	100% (1/1)	+70%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+117%	1

Other35 bets
Hit rate
69% (24/35)
ROI
+54%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+51%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+70%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+117%

Track record

72% hit · 28/39

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$91	63.6¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$20	89.8¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$20	85.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$150	30.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$101	84.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$600	76.4¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	Yes	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	$8	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?	Yes	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$284	35.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$510	51.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$20	81.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$440	88.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$112	64.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	No	$100	81.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	No	$10	83.2¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$4	6.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$148	59.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$97	46.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$31	62.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$50	32.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.1k	58.8¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?	No	$20	80.0¢	Won
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?	Yes	$28	37.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?	Yes	$12	39.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$20	48.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$420	60.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$100	82.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?	Yes	$57	51.5¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$25	65.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19?	No	$71	71.5¢	Won
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?	No	$100	63.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$395	74.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?	Yes	$25	29.7¢	Lost
US recession in 2025?	Yes	$25	28.0¢	Lost

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$91 @ 63.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$20 @ 89.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$20 @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$150 @ 30.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$101 @ 84.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$600 @ 76.4¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
Yes$8 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Lost
Yes$10 @ 41.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$284 @ 35.5¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$510 @ 51.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$20 @ 81.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$440 @ 88.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$112 @ 64.3¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 81.0¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Won
No$10 @ 83.2¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.5¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$148 @ 59.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$97 @ 46.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$31 @ 62.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 32.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 58.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?Won
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?Lost
Yes$28 @ 37.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 39.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$20 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$420 @ 60.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Won
No$100 @ 82.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?Lost
Yes$57 @ 51.5¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$25 @ 65.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19?Won
No$71 @ 71.5¢
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 63.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Won
Yes$395 @ 74.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 29.7¢
US recession in 2025?Lost
Yes$25 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	92.7¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 92.7¢