0x24fb…973e

Specialization by sphere

• Politics22 bets

  Hit rate

  64% (14/22)

  ROI

  +55%

• Other18 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (12/18)

  ROI

  +7%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/4)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +47%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
  No$3.5k @ 74.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 44.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$780 @ 30.9¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$3.8k @ 79.8¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.8k @ 14.6¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$4.5k @ 69.7¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 83.6¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 7.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$300 @ 6.0¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$669 @ 70.6¢
• Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Won
  Yes$5.4k @ 83.7¢
• Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
  No$96 @ 22.0¢
• Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
  No$945 @ 88.8¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Lost
  Yes$864 @ 20.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
  No$2.1k @ 42.9¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$40 @ 56.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Lost
  No$90 @ 21.5¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Won
  No$1.7k @ 74.3¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.2k @ 57.1¢
• Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?Won
  Yes$315 @ 35.1¢
• Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
  Yes$83 @ 3.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 15.1¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Lost
  Yes$670 @ 10.1¢
• Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?Won
  No$3 @ 59.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Lost
  No$291 @ 19.9¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 3.1¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.6k @ 73.8¢
• Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?Won
  No$1.2k @ 34.8¢
• Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Lost
  No$2.8k @ 81.0¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 88.7¢
• Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?Won
  Yes$9.4k @ 70.4¢
• Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 59.5¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
  No$3 @ 65.0¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$1.4k @ 65.2¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Lost
  Yes$109 @ 3.5¢
• Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5?Lost
  Yes$428 @ 7.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$4.0k @ 61.2¢
• Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4?Lost
  No$130 @ 10.1¢
• Iran leadership change by March 31?Won
  No$3.0k @ 65.7¢
• Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Won
  No$425 @ 85.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
  No$1.7k @ 88.7¢
• Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 21.3¢
• Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Won
  No$1.4k @ 79.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 20.9¢
• Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?Lost
  No$134 @ 15.8¢
• Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?Won
  No$4.5k @ 87.8¢
• Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.2k @ 86.8¢
• Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?Won
  No$12 @ 60.0¢

Current positions

• Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$3.1k @ 96.0¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$2.9k @ 97.0¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
  Yes$2.5k @ 60.8¢
• US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
  No$2.2k @ 81.7¢
• Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$2.0k @ 69.1¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 89.6¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$1.3k @ 21.7¢
• Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?Crypto
  No$1.3k @ 84.0¢
• US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 79.4¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 53.0¢
• Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?Tech
  No$1.1k @ 92.9¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$820 @ 69.0¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
  Yes$802 @ 23.7¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$467 @ 43.7¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  Yes$398 @ 9.7¢
• KOSPI all-time high before 2028?Business
  Yes$374 @ 66.9¢
• Taylor & Travis divorce in 2026?Culture
  No$335 @ 95.0¢
• Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?Crypto
  Yes$276 @ 30.0¢
• Will Sneako be deported in 2026?Culture
  No$237 @ 96.0¢
• Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$189 @ 34.7¢
• Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
  No$186 @ 69.6¢
• Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$108 @ 18.8¢
• US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?Politics
  No$89 @ 80.9¢
• Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$86 @ 17.0¢
• Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
  No$74 @ 31.8¢
• Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
  Yes$24 @ 31.8¢
• Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?Politics
  No$23 @ 92.0¢
• Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?Other
  Yes$19 @ 19.0¢