0x241f…e15a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x241ff966f22080fbee3928e194763e575847e15a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

50% @ 43.5¢

Brier

0.062

Resolved

1000

Avg size

$100

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (50/97)	+2%	97
Politics	41% (14/34)	+31%	34
Tech	73% (11/15)	+19%	15
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-5%	2

Other97 bets
Hit rate
52% (50/97)
ROI
+2%
Politics34 bets
Hit rate
41% (14/34)
ROI
+31%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
73% (11/15)
ROI
+19%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-5%

Track record

51% hit · 76/148

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Yes	$313	83.3¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$90	89.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	87.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$84	4.2¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	No	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$86	85.1¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$352	2.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9.6k	87.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	6.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 30?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$18	5.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$5.2k	87.4¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Yes	$61	56.9¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?	Yes	$9	1.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 59 million or more views on day 4?	No	$15	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$3.9k	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$743	5.4¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	$30	5.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	82.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$331	5.5¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	$231	89.8¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?	Yes	$42	81.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$2.6k	87.3¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$17	1.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$937	82.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$814	81.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$71	3.2¢	Lost
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	No	$490	59.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	$18	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$544	4.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$1.3k	4.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.1k	86.8¢	Won
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$15	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$7.5k	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$160	2.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$898	81.6¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?	Yes	$186	89.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?	Yes	$152	75.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$870	87.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$21	3.0¢	Lost
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	No	$71	40.7¢	Won
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$78	89.7¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?	No	$266	50.1¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$235	84.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$440	88.0¢	Won
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?	No	$435	89.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$288	89.0¢	Won

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Won
Yes$313 @ 83.3¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$90 @ 89.5¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 87.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$84 @ 4.2¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$86 @ 85.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$352 @ 2.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9.6k @ 87.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 6.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 30?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$18 @ 5.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$5.2k @ 87.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Lost
Yes$61 @ 56.9¢
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 59 million or more views on day 4?Lost
No$15 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 86.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$743 @ 5.4¢
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$331 @ 5.5¢
Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale?Won
No$231 @ 89.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 15?Won
Yes$42 @ 81.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$2.6k @ 87.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$17 @ 1.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$937 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$814 @ 81.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$71 @ 3.2¢
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?Won
No$490 @ 59.3¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$544 @ 4.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1.3k @ 4.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 86.8¢
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$15 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$7.5k @ 84.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$160 @ 2.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$898 @ 81.6¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 15?Won
Yes$186 @ 89.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 15?Won
Yes$152 @ 75.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$870 @ 87.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.0¢
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Won
No$71 @ 40.7¢
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$78 @ 89.7¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Won
No$266 @ 50.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$235 @ 84.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$440 @ 88.0¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?Won
No$435 @ 89.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$288 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.8k	88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.6k	72.3¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.6k	79.1¢
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	87.8¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$954	19.1¢
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$616	83.3¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$455	91.0¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$446	89.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$380	84.0¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$160	8.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$57	82.0¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$1.8k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.6k @ 72.3¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$1.6k @ 79.1¢
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 87.8¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$954 @ 19.1¢
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$616 @ 83.3¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$455 @ 91.0¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$446 @ 89.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$380 @ 84.0¢
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$160 @ 8.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$57 @ 82.0¢