0x23ca…9ae6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x23ca4376e7b74376b9247c4daac3dcad1fec9ae6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

77% @ 65.8¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

1659

Avg size

$53

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (231/336)	+15%	336
Politics	67% (2/3)	-25%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+14%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other336 bets
Hit rate
69% (231/336)
ROI
+15%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-25%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+14%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

69% hit · 235/342

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$1.1k	56.3¢	Won
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$76	56.0¢	Won
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$41	75.9¢	Won
Will X-Energy’s market cap be between $6B and $7B at market close on IPO day?	No	$268	83.7¢	Won
Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?	Yes	$5	27.0¢	Lost
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$105	88.1¢	Won
Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$254	81.3¢	Won
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Vacherot	Vacherot	$47	43.0¢	Lost
Will International Business Machines (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$20	81.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$12	12.3¢	Lost
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?	No	$266	76.0¢	Won
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1.5k	74.5¢	Won
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$28	80.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$371	74.2¢	Lost
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$90	12.9¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$159	75.5¢	Won
Adelaide International: Mirra Andreeva vs Diana Shnaider	Andreeva	$64	75.2¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	$19	15.9¢	Won
Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$668	72.3¢	Won
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Jaqueline Cristian	Birrell	$46	46.0¢	Won
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Jaqueline Cristian	Cristian	$38	58.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev	Alcaraz	$589	51.7¢	Won
Will Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$53	68.1¢	Won
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$271	82.0¢	Won
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$14	68.0¢	Lost
Will "NFT" be said during the Robinhood stream?	No	$36	72.4¢	Won
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	$485	55.7¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$980	68.9¢	Won
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud	Ruud	$413	71.9¢	Won
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31?	No	$17	66.0¢	Won
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	$21	70.5¢	Won
Miami vs. Indiana	Indiana	$406	75.1¢	Won
Miami vs. Indiana	Miami	$33	26.2¢	Lost
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$307	85.4¢	Won
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner	Sinner	$21	84.9¢	Lost
Will GoPro (GPRO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$3	61.0¢	Lost
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?	No	$340	78.5¢	Won
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$18	72.0¢	Won
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$762	73.6¢	Won
Will PulteGroup (PHM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$201	79.0¢	Lost
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$4	69.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of December 22?	Yes	$108	54.0¢	Won
Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$169	79.1¢	Won
Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$3.7k	76.9¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	No	$5	63.2¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	Yes	$726	47.4¢	Lost
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Will FedEx say "De Minimis" during earnings call?	Yes	$127	77.7¢	Won

Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$1.1k @ 56.3¢
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$76 @ 56.0¢
49ers vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$41 @ 75.9¢
Will X-Energy’s market cap be between $6B and $7B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$268 @ 83.7¢
Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
Yes$105 @ 88.1¢
Will Philip Morris International (PM) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$254 @ 81.3¢
Adelaide International: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin VacherotLost
Vacherot$47 @ 43.0¢
Will International Business Machines (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$20 @ 81.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.3¢
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Won
No$266 @ 76.0¢
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 74.5¢
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$28 @ 80.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$371 @ 74.2¢
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$90 @ 12.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$159 @ 75.5¢
Adelaide International: Mirra Andreeva vs Diana ShnaiderWon
Andreeva$64 @ 75.2¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?Won
Yes$19 @ 15.9¢
Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$668 @ 72.3¢
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Jaqueline CristianWon
Birrell$46 @ 46.0¢
Adelaide International: Kimberly Birrell vs Jaqueline CristianLost
Cristian$38 @ 58.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander ZverevWon
Alcaraz$589 @ 51.7¢
Will Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$53 @ 68.1¢
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$271 @ 82.0¢
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$14 @ 68.0¢
Will "NFT" be said during the Robinhood stream?Won
No$36 @ 72.4¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksLost
Patriots$485 @ 55.7¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$980 @ 68.9¢
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper RuudWon
Ruud$413 @ 71.9¢
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31?Won
No$17 @ 66.0¢
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
Yes$21 @ 70.5¢
Miami vs. IndianaWon
Indiana$406 @ 75.1¢
Miami vs. IndianaLost
Miami$33 @ 26.2¢
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$307 @ 85.4¢
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik SinnerLost
Sinner$21 @ 84.9¢
Will GoPro (GPRO) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.0¢
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?Won
No$340 @ 78.5¢
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$18 @ 72.0¢
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$762 @ 73.6¢
Will PulteGroup (PHM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$201 @ 79.0¢
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$4 @ 69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of December 22?Won
Yes$108 @ 54.0¢
Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$169 @ 79.1¢
Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$3.7k @ 76.9¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?Won
No$5 @ 63.2¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?Lost
Yes$726 @ 47.4¢
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$40 @ 20.0¢
Will FedEx say "De Minimis" during earnings call?Won
Yes$127 @ 77.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.6k	83.4¢
Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026?	—	Yes	$1.4k	91.9¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$895	83.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Other	No	$586	85.4¢
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Business	Yes	$476	86.5¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?	Other	No	$466	95.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Other	No	$314	90.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	Other	No	$233	83.9¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?	Other	No	$175	78.8¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$163	16.7¢
Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?	—	No	$149	91.9¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$116	74.7¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?	Other	No	$71	50.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$24	81.3¢
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?	Tech	No	$24	92.0¢
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$10	66.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$7	67.2¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$4	65.4¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$3	60.0¢

Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$2.6k @ 83.4¢
Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026?—
Yes$1.4k @ 91.9¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$895 @ 83.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?Other
No$586 @ 85.4¢
Will Carnival (CCL) beat quarterly earnings?Business
Yes$476 @ 86.5¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?Other
No$466 @ 95.0¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Other
No$314 @ 90.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?Other
No$233 @ 83.9¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?Other
No$175 @ 78.8¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$163 @ 16.7¢
Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $12B and $13B at market close on IPO day?—
No$149 @ 91.9¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$116 @ 74.7¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?Other
No$71 @ 50.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$24 @ 81.3¢
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?Tech
No$24 @ 92.0¢
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$7 @ 67.2¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$4 @ 65.4¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$3 @ 60.0¢