0x233b…1f2c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x233bacfb515aad6871027b95c5e4c6166f5c1f2c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

46% @ 40.9¢

Brier

0.217

Resolved

589

Avg size

$196

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (60/128)	+13%	128
Other	61% (55/90)	+102%	90
Geopolitics	33% (8/24)	-37%	24
Tech	73% (11/15)	+18%	15
Sports	43% (3/7)	-42%	7
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+37%	3
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (2/2)	+22%	2

Politics128 bets
Hit rate
47% (60/128)
ROI
+13%
Other90 bets
Hit rate
61% (55/90)
ROI
+102%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
33% (8/24)
ROI
-37%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
73% (11/15)
ROI
+18%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-42%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+37%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+22%

Track record

52% hit · 141/271

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$483	63.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$250	22.6¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$250	10.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$400	34.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$500	67.7¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$250	21.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$214	12.2¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$250	74.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$22	25.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$400	85.9¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$613	44.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$699	17.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	45.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	$250	40.1¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	29.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$220	58.0¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$404	71.6¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$650	45.2¢	Won
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	Yes	$11	22.1¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?	Yes	$207	87.6¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$522	29.2¢	Won
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$102	56.0¢	Won
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$250	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$157	50.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$250	60.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$250	67.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	18.5¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	$258	14.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$56	3.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$745	23.3¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$600	38.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$633	32.8¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$220	5.5¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$171	42.7¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$350	23.5¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$848	84.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$590	24.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$493	34.7¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	$250	89.4¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$268	15.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$387	27.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	No	$304	63.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$205	85.5¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$151	66.8¢	Lost
US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	$251	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$541	11.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$350	40.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$812	25.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$359	32.6¢	Won

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$483 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 22.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$250 @ 10.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$400 @ 34.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 67.7¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$250 @ 21.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$214 @ 12.2¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$250 @ 74.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$22 @ 25.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$400 @ 85.9¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$613 @ 44.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$699 @ 17.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 45.8¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Lost
Yes$250 @ 40.1¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 29.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$220 @ 58.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$404 @ 71.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$650 @ 45.2¢
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.1¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Won
Yes$207 @ 87.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$522 @ 29.2¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Robert Whittaker$102 @ 56.0¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$250 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$157 @ 50.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$250 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 18.5¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Lost
Yes$258 @ 14.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$56 @ 3.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$745 @ 23.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$600 @ 38.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$633 @ 32.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$220 @ 5.5¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$171 @ 42.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$350 @ 23.5¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$848 @ 84.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$590 @ 24.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$493 @ 34.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?Won
No$250 @ 89.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$268 @ 15.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$387 @ 27.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
No$304 @ 63.9¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$205 @ 85.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$151 @ 66.8¢
US bank failure by June 30?Won
Yes$251 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$541 @ 11.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$350 @ 40.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$812 @ 25.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$359 @ 32.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$110	80.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$36	70.2¢

Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$110 @ 80.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$36 @ 70.2¢