0x233b…1f2c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x233bacfb515aad6871027b95c5e4c6166f5c1f2c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

50% @ 45.4¢

Brier

0.207

Resolved

891

Avg size

$189

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	51% (87/172)	+11%	172
Other	59% (94/158)	+74%	158
Tech	69% (49/71)	+13%	71
Geopolitics	45% (17/38)	-34%	38
Sports	43% (3/7)	-42%	7
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+39%	4
Economy	100% (3/3)	+23%	3
Business	33% (1/3)	+8%	3
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics172 bets
Hit rate
51% (87/172)
ROI
+11%
Other158 bets
Hit rate
59% (94/158)
ROI
+74%
Tech71 bets
Hit rate
69% (49/71)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics38 bets
Hit rate
45% (17/38)
ROI
-34%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-42%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+39%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+23%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+8%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 257/460

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?	No	$128	29.0¢	Lost
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	$557	50.8¢	Won
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	$600	6.9¢	Lost
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$483	63.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$250	22.6¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$250	10.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$400	34.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$500	67.7¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$250	21.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$214	12.2¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?	Yes	$60	87.8¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$350	76.1¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$250	74.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?	No	$220	54.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?	Yes	$80	82.7¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$22	25.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$400	85.9¢	Won
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	Yes	$203	57.1¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$613	44.4¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	13.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$699	17.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	45.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	$250	40.1¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?	Yes	$28	26.0¢	Lost
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?	Yes	$150	62.5¢	Won
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	$451	60.8¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	29.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$220	58.0¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$404	71.6¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?	Yes	$269	86.6¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$650	45.2¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$220	12.1¢	Lost
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	Yes	$11	22.1¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?	Yes	$207	87.6¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$522	29.2¢	Won
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$102	56.0¢	Won
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$250	68.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$1.2k	16.4¢	Won
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$0	18.6¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$341	69.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$157	50.6¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	$125	82.9¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?	Yes	$50	76.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$250	60.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$250	67.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	18.5¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	$258	14.6¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$53	49.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$56	3.4¢	Lost

Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 14?Lost
No$128 @ 29.0¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Won
Yes$557 @ 50.8¢
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Lost
Yes$600 @ 6.9¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$483 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 22.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$250 @ 10.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$400 @ 34.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 67.7¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$250 @ 21.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$214 @ 12.2¢
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Won
Yes$60 @ 87.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$350 @ 76.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$250 @ 74.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?Won
No$220 @ 54.9¢
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?Won
Yes$80 @ 82.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$22 @ 25.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$400 @ 85.9¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
Yes$203 @ 57.1¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$613 @ 44.4¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 13.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$699 @ 17.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 45.8¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Lost
Yes$250 @ 40.1¢
Will Trump praise Warren Buffett in September?Lost
Yes$28 @ 26.0¢
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?Won
Yes$150 @ 62.5¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Won
Yes$451 @ 60.8¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 29.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$220 @ 58.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$404 @ 71.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 21?Won
Yes$269 @ 86.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$650 @ 45.2¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$220 @ 12.1¢
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.1¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Won
Yes$207 @ 87.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$522 @ 29.2¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Robert Whittaker$102 @ 56.0¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$250 @ 68.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$1.2k @ 16.4¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$0 @ 18.6¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Won
Yes$341 @ 69.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$157 @ 50.6¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Won
Yes$125 @ 82.9¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 76.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$250 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 18.5¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Lost
Yes$258 @ 14.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 49.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$56 @ 3.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	No	$147	51.0¢
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Politics	No	$128	81.9¢
National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?	Politics	Yes	$102	38.9¢

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
No$147 @ 51.0¢
Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
No$128 @ 81.9¢
National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?Politics
Yes$102 @ 38.9¢