0x22db…190f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x22dbd51e1a4e10fff072fa24300238c64033190f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-3.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

42% @ 45.6¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

2939

Avg size

$48

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (82/142)	+4%	142
Politics	55% (63/115)	+10%	115
Geopolitics	50% (10/20)	-3%	20
Culture	60% (6/10)	-1%	10
Sports	44% (4/9)	-49%	9
Tech	57% (4/7)	-61%	7
Economy	100% (2/2)	+43%	2

Other142 bets
Hit rate
58% (82/142)
ROI
+4%
Politics115 bets
Hit rate
55% (63/115)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
-3%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
-1%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-49%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-61%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+43%

Track record

56% hit · 171/305

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	No	$47	94.7¢	Won
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$441	73.7¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$1.1k	62.9¢	Lost
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$319	82.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$1.6k	86.6¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$45	11.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$27	16.3¢	Lost
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$1.8k	82.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$2.0k	64.4¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$342	27.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?	No	$165	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$134	80.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$844	62.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	21.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$481	9.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$16	31.1¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$93	5.8¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$56	22.6¢	Lost
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?	Yes	$9	2.3¢	Lost
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	$1.3k	86.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$946	78.9¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	20.6¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$285	26.2¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$726	82.5¢	Won
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	No	$1	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$140	87.5¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$172	32.8¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$145	68.2¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$321	25.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$539	74.9¢	Won
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$61	60.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.3k	72.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$201	30.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$313	25.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$653	86.0¢	Won
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	$33	21.9¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	Yes	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$25	45.7¢	Won
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$80	40.0¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	No	$61	3.2¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?	Yes	$155	64.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$112	86.3¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$456	69.5¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$7	3.4¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$638	30.7¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$279	69.7¢	Won
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$48	21.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$754	67.3¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$340	61.1¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	0.7¢	Lost

Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?Won
No$47 @ 94.7¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Won
Yes$441 @ 73.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 62.9¢
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$319 @ 82.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 86.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$45 @ 11.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 16.3¢
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$1.8k @ 82.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 64.4¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$342 @ 27.9¢
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in June?Won
No$165 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
No$134 @ 80.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$844 @ 62.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 21.6¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$481 @ 9.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$16 @ 31.1¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$93 @ 5.8¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$56 @ 22.6¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.3¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Won
No$1.3k @ 86.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$946 @ 78.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 20.6¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$285 @ 26.2¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$726 @ 82.5¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Won
No$1 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$140 @ 87.5¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$172 @ 32.8¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$145 @ 68.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$321 @ 25.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$539 @ 74.9¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$61 @ 60.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1.3k @ 72.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$201 @ 30.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$313 @ 25.7¢
Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
No$653 @ 86.0¢
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 21.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Won
Yes$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$25 @ 45.7¢
Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
Yes$80 @ 40.0¢
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Lost
No$61 @ 3.2¢
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?Won
Yes$155 @ 64.3¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$112 @ 86.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$456 @ 69.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$638 @ 30.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$279 @ 69.7¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$48 @ 21.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$754 @ 67.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$340 @ 61.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$7.1k	85.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$4.3k	75.2¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$1.9k	87.7¢
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	87.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	59.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	86.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	82.1¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$812	75.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$733	45.6¢
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$720	0.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	No	$629	83.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$596	39.8¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$544	67.7¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$501	14.3¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$479	24.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$477	23.8¢
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30?	Politics	No	$445	73.5¢
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Politics	No	$420	64.7¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$387	4.3¢
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$379	41.9¢
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?	Culture	No	$378	73.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$366	85.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$360	22.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$354	24.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$349	8.6¢
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$346	85.2¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	Yes	$340	34.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$302	66.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$300	11.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$289	37.4¢

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$7.1k @ 85.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$4.3k @ 75.2¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$1.9k @ 87.7¢
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 87.8¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 59.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 86.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 82.1¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$812 @ 75.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$733 @ 45.6¢
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$720 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
No$629 @ 83.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$596 @ 39.8¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$544 @ 67.7¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$501 @ 14.3¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$479 @ 24.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$477 @ 23.8¢
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30?Politics
No$445 @ 73.5¢
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Politics
No$420 @ 64.7¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$387 @ 4.3¢
Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?Tech
Yes$379 @ 41.9¢
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?Culture
No$378 @ 73.0¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$366 @ 85.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$360 @ 22.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$354 @ 24.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$349 @ 8.6¢
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?—
No$346 @ 85.2¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
Yes$340 @ 34.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$302 @ 66.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$300 @ 11.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$289 @ 37.4¢