0x21e1…336d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x21e1a2d4bc67db486f4a045b13a7c105c7a8336d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.4pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

62% @ 52.1¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

247

Avg size

$10

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (32/56)	-21%	56
Sports	53% (9/17)	+162%	17
Politics	88% (7/8)	+43%	8
Tech	33% (1/3)	+33%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+27%	2

Other56 bets
Hit rate
57% (32/56)
ROI
-21%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
53% (9/17)
ROI
+162%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+43%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+33%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+27%

Track record

59% hit · 51/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	Gillian Robertson	$64	33.5¢	Lost
Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$19	9.8¢	Lost
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	Ian Machado Garry	$25	25.8¢	Lost
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Spain	$3	20.7¢	Lost
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	$3	6.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$15	95.4¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)	Renato Moicano	$8	54.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$9	65.0¢	Won
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall	Hall	$162	26.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$7	89.9¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$25	87.8¢	Won
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Ciryl Gane	$96	51.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$150	62.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$6	74.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$41	62.6¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$5	84.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$21	70.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$7	88.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	Yes	$8	50.0¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	63.5¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$60	68.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$30	83.2¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)	Mike Malott	$14	54.0¢	Won
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	$30	74.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$43	58.3¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?	No	$109	48.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$140	77.5¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	No	$42	46.9¢	Lost
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	$12	15.2¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)	Francisco Prado	$12	58.0¢	Won
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$10	83.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$130	75.8¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)	Felipe Lima	$22	62.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$7	88.2¢	Won
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?	No	$28	79.1¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$5	72.3¢	Won
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?	No	$18	78.9¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	$8	13.6¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$42	70.8¢	Won
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?	No	$10	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$25	78.1¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	No	$12	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$10	82.0¢	Lost
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$18	54.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?	No	$13	70.4¢	Lost

UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Lost
Gillian Robertson$64 @ 33.5¢
Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.8¢
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Ian Machado Garry$25 @ 25.8¢
Spread: Spain (-1.5)Lost
Spain$3 @ 20.7¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5)Lost
Spain$3 @ 6.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$15 @ 95.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Renato Moicano$8 @ 54.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$9 @ 65.0¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie HallLost
Hall$162 @ 26.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$7 @ 89.9¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 87.8¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Won
Ciryl Gane$96 @ 51.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$150 @ 62.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$6 @ 74.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$41 @ 62.6¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 84.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$21 @ 70.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$7 @ 88.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 50.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 63.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 68.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 83.2¢
UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Mike Malott$14 @ 54.0¢
UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Won
Arman Tsarukyan$30 @ 74.1¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$43 @ 58.3¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?Won
No$109 @ 48.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$140 @ 77.5¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Lost
No$42 @ 46.9¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.2¢
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)Won
Francisco Prado$12 @ 58.0¢
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 83.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$130 @ 75.8¢
UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)Won
Felipe Lima$22 @ 62.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 88.2¢
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?Won
No$28 @ 79.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 72.3¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?Won
No$18 @ 78.9¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 13.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$42 @ 70.8¢
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?Won
No$10 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 78.1¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Won
No$12 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$10 @ 82.0¢
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?Won
Yes$18 @ 54.0¢
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?Lost
No$13 @ 70.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	Yes	$92	28.0¢
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)	—	Gillian Robertson	$64	33.5¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall	—	Hall	$42	19.6¢
UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Sports	Ciryl Gane	$35	67.0¢
UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)	Sports	Kayla Harrison	$35	62.0¢
Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?	Sports	Yes	$31	21.3¢
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	—	Ian Machado Garry	$25	25.8¢
Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?	—	Yes	$19	9.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	—	No	$15	95.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)	Sports	Matheus Camilo	$15	64.0¢
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	—	Pimblett	$14	68.6¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Politics	Yes	$12	15.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	—	No	$10	82.0¢
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	—	No	$10	26.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Sports	Yes	$8	23.2¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	50.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)	Sports	Renato Moicano	$8	54.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	38.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	—	No	$8	14.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	—	No	$6	22.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	No	$4	39.7¢
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Sports	Yes	$3	9.0¢
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Culture	Yes	$3	7.0¢
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	—	Spain	$3	20.7¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	—	Spain	$3	6.5¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$2	1.7¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	8.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Sports	Yes	$1	4.0¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	—	Spain	$1	2.0¢

Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
Yes$92 @ 28.0¢
UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)—
Gillian Robertson$64 @ 33.5¢
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall—
Hall$42 @ 19.6¢
UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)Sports
Ciryl Gane$35 @ 67.0¢
UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card)Sports
Kayla Harrison$35 @ 62.0¢
Will Ian Machado Garry become UFC champion in 2026?Sports
Yes$31 @ 21.3¢
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)—
Ian Machado Garry$25 @ 25.8¢
Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?—
Yes$19 @ 9.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?—
No$15 @ 95.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports
Matheus Camilo$15 @ 64.0¢
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)—
Pimblett$14 @ 68.6¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Politics
Yes$12 @ 15.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?—
No$10 @ 82.0¢
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?—
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?Sports
Yes$8 @ 23.2¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 50.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)Sports
Renato Moicano$8 @ 54.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 38.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?—
No$8 @ 14.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?—
No$6 @ 22.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
No$4 @ 39.7¢
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Sports
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?Culture
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Spread: Spain (-1.5)—
Spain$3 @ 20.7¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5)—
Spain$3 @ 6.5¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?Sports
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5)—
Spain$1 @ 2.0¢