← Smart money
0x21d5…9925
SharpEdge
+11.4pp
ROI
+8%
Win rate
79% @ 67.8¢
Brier
0.136
Resolved
317
Avg size
$48
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 67% (18/27) | -20% | 27 |
| Politics | 68% (13/19) | -6% | 19 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +24% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other27 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (18/27)
- ROI
- -20%
- Politics19 bets
- Hit rate
- 68% (13/19)
- ROI
- -6%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +24%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
67% hit · 33/49- Yes$1.9k @ 44.9¢
- Yes$193 @ 88.7¢
- No$717 @ 88.5¢
- No$24 @ 15.3¢
- No$20 @ 39.0¢
- No$5 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
- No$428 @ 85.6¢
- Yes$7 @ 66.5¢
- No$135 @ 88.0¢
- No$4 @ 89.7¢
- Yes$544 @ 57.3¢
- Yes$444 @ 86.7¢
- Yes$14 @ 77.0¢
- No$753 @ 75.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 67.8¢
- Yes$181 @ 72.4¢
- No$82 @ 63.1¢
- No$10 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$260 @ 65.0¢
- No$339 @ 75.4¢
- No$4 @ 86.0¢
- No$540 @ 71.8¢
- Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
- No$542 @ 75.3¢
- No$866 @ 74.6¢
- No$194 @ 84.3¢
- Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$330 @ 66.0¢
- No$173 @ 59.3¢
- No$4 @ 89.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 75.1¢
- Yes$40 @ 2.0¢
- No$1.8k @ 84.9¢
- Yes$122 @ 61.0¢
- No$950 @ 74.2¢
- Yes$6 @ 16.5¢
- No$9 @ 89.0¢
- No$89 @ 89.0¢
- No$84 @ 84.2¢
- Yes$621 @ 69.0¢
- No$3 @ 50.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 86.6¢
- No$75 @ 75.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 78.8¢
- No$2.4k @ 86.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $6.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $6.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | Politics | No | $3.5k | 84.6¢ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | Tech | No | $2.2k | 94.7¢ |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $1.3k | 83.9¢ |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | — | Yes | $1.1k | 82.8¢ |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Geopolitics | Yes | $996 | 70.9¢ |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $896 | 89.6¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? | Politics | No | $245 | 92.5¢ |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by August 31? | Politics | No | $213 | 91.2¢ |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | Geopolitics | No | $115 | 66.0¢ |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | — | No | $70 | 70.0¢ |
- Yes$6.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$6.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$3.5k @ 84.6¢
- No$2.2k @ 94.7¢
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$1.3k @ 83.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 82.8¢
- Yes$996 @ 70.9¢
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$896 @ 89.6¢
- No$245 @ 92.5¢
- No$213 @ 91.2¢
- No$115 @ 66.0¢
- No$70 @ 70.0¢