0x2140…5790

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x21405be22aa7fc6983d91113b79d94cd73c35790
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-6.8pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

43% @ 49.3¢

Brier

0.222

Resolved

881

Avg size

$109

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (102/201)	+23%	201
Politics	47% (18/38)	-16%	38
Sports	44% (4/9)	+2%	9
Economy	50% (2/4)	-45%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+49%	1

Other201 bets
Hit rate
51% (102/201)
ROI
+23%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
47% (18/38)
ROI
-16%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
+2%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-45%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+49%

Track record

49% hit · 127/257

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	$241	21.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$144	89.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$73	73.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	No	$1.3k	60.0¢	Won
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?	Yes	$100	31.5¢	Lost
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?	Yes	$746	39.0¢	Lost
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$173	72.5¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$33	33.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$101	67.0¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$500	24.7¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$500	11.0¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$767	73.1¢	Lost
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	Yes	$514	42.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$247	23.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	No	$124	34.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$214	18.9¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$307	64.0¢	Lost
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?	Yes	$80	80.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$142	71.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$54	27.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	Yes	$201	76.0¢	Won
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	No	$125	62.5¢	Lost
Will Meta dip to $640 in February?	Yes	$1.2k	47.0¢	Won
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$325	65.0¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$198	50.9¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$1.2k	39.3¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Yes	$605	54.0¢	Lost
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%?	Yes	$71	67.0¢	Won
Will Netanyahu's UN speech be less than 15 minutes long?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1.2k	44.5¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$919	71.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50.5 and 51.0 million views on day 6?	No	$990	56.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$103	86.0¢	Won
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?	No	$38	19.0¢	Lost
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?	Yes	$100	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?	No	$300	87.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$422	38.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	No	$170	85.0¢	Lost
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?	No	$560	80.4¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$2.5k	61.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$324	41.9¢	Lost
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?	No	$187	86.0¢	Won
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?	No	$1.1k	72.0¢	Won
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	No	$110	54.9¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	Yes	$500	32.5¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$467	77.0¢	Won
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$131	15.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	17.1¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$227	46.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$130	31.0¢	Lost

Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak DjokovicLost
Novak Djokovic$241 @ 21.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$144 @ 89.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 60.0¢
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?Lost
Yes$100 @ 31.5¢
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?Lost
Yes$746 @ 39.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$173 @ 72.5¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$33 @ 33.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$101 @ 67.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$500 @ 24.7¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$500 @ 11.0¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$767 @ 73.1¢
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?Won
Yes$514 @ 42.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$247 @ 23.2¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
No$124 @ 34.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$214 @ 18.9¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$307 @ 64.0¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?Lost
Yes$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$142 @ 71.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
Yes$201 @ 76.0¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Lost
No$125 @ 62.5¢
Will Meta dip to $640 in February?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 47.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$325 @ 65.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$198 @ 50.9¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$1.2k @ 39.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Lost
Yes$605 @ 54.0¢
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%?Won
Yes$71 @ 67.0¢
Will Netanyahu's UN speech be less than 15 minutes long?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1.2k @ 44.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$919 @ 71.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50.5 and 51.0 million views on day 6?Lost
No$990 @ 56.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 86.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?Lost
No$38 @ 19.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?Won
Yes$100 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?Won
No$300 @ 87.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$422 @ 38.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Lost
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?Won
No$560 @ 80.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 61.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$324 @ 41.9¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?Won
No$187 @ 86.0¢
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?Won
No$1.1k @ 72.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
No$110 @ 54.9¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Lost
Yes$500 @ 32.5¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
No$467 @ 77.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$131 @ 15.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.0k @ 17.1¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$227 @ 46.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$130 @ 31.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$2.2k	50.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Economy	No	$1.7k	66.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$1.6k	83.3¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	93.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$856	62.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$761	72.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Politics	No	$663	49.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	No	$588	27.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$555	27.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$555	76.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	No	$433	84.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$420	15.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	No	$414	76.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	—	Yes	$404	38.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$384	87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$380	23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$379	49.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$376	76.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$363	21.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$362	36.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$356	70.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$354	33.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$325	43.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	—	No	$324	41.9¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$309	90.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$307	13.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$307	64.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$302	14.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	—	No	$265	37.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$254	26.3¢

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$2.2k @ 50.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?Economy
No$1.7k @ 66.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$1.6k @ 83.3¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 93.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$856 @ 62.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$761 @ 72.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Politics
No$663 @ 49.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
No$588 @ 27.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$555 @ 27.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$555 @ 76.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
No$433 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$420 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
No$414 @ 76.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?—
Yes$404 @ 38.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$384 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$380 @ 23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$379 @ 49.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$376 @ 76.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$363 @ 21.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$362 @ 36.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$356 @ 70.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$354 @ 33.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$325 @ 43.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?—
No$324 @ 41.9¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$309 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$307 @ 13.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$307 @ 64.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$302 @ 14.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?—
No$265 @ 37.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$254 @ 26.3¢