← Smart money
0x2100…930c
ProfitableEdge
+25.6pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
48% @ 22.2¢
Brier
0.249
Resolved
245
Avg size
$185
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 43% (6/14) | +9% | 14 |
| Sports | 13% (1/8) | -99% | 8 |
- Other14 bets
- Hit rate
- 43% (6/14)
- ROI
- +9%
- Sports8 bets
- Hit rate
- 13% (1/8)
- ROI
- -99%
Track record
32% hit · 7/22- Suns$8 @ 61.0¢
- Lakers$4.2k @ 36.0¢
- Warriors$4.8k @ 30.0¢
- 76ers$6.8k @ 59.0¢
- Yes$334 @ 37.1¢
- Spurs$4.7k @ 77.0¢
- Heat$1.3k @ 45.0¢
- Raphael Calzi$240 @ 50.0¢
- Trail Blazers$3.7k @ 48.0¢
- Trail Blazers$1 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$190 @ 19.0¢
- Thunder$1.9k @ 17.7¢
- Nuggets$2.2k @ 27.0¢
- Clippers$7.1k @ 31.0¢
- Celtics vs. SunsLostSuns$6.6k @ 34.0¢
- No$918 @ 22.5¢
- Yes$69 @ 5.9¢
- Yes$11 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$66 @ 5.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $405 | 45.0¢ |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $392 | 14.0¢ |
| Will the Golden State Warriors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? | Sports | No | $268 | 51.9¢ |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $209 | 11.0¢ |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $61 | 1.9¢ |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | Yes | $39 | 16.3¢ |
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?PoliticsYes$405 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$392 @ 14.0¢
- No$268 @ 51.9¢
- Yes$209 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$61 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$39 @ 16.3¢