0x1fee…ed5e

Specialization by sphere

• Politics29 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (17/29)

  ROI

  +47%

• Other22 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (15/22)

  ROI

  +23%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
  No$153 @ 65.0¢
• Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
  Yes$7.2k @ 71.0¢
• Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$8.6k @ 25.8¢
• Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
  No$8.9k @ 63.0¢
• Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$4.2k @ 14.4¢
• Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$313 @ 49.0¢
• Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$12 @ 85.3¢
• Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?Won
  Yes$5.9k @ 37.9¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$42.7k @ 80.3¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$1.9k @ 10.7¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
  No$724 @ 62.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$27.8k @ 70.2¢
• Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?Lost
  Yes$896 @ 14.8¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?Lost
  Yes$611 @ 69.6¢
• Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
  Yes$4.5k @ 69.6¢
• Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?Won
  No$10 @ 85.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$12.5k @ 72.0¢
• Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 10.0¢
• Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?Won
  No$22.9k @ 80.6¢
• Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia MejiaWon
  No$82 @ 82.0¢
• Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
  Yes$24.9k @ 87.5¢
• Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  Yes$688 @ 7.0¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  No$7.6k @ 43.2¢
• Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
  No$1.4k @ 71.2¢
• Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?Won
  Yes$8.0k @ 46.8¢
• Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  Yes$16.2k @ 38.7¢
• Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?Won
  No$87 @ 9.9¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?Won
  No$12.3k @ 45.1¢
• Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
  Yes$72.8k @ 54.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$71.6k @ 79.0¢
• Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$91 @ 0.4¢
• Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and 25%?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 82.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$13.0k @ 77.0¢
• Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
  No$1.3k @ 69.4¢
• Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Lost
  No$3 @ 1.0¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?Lost
  Yes$39 @ 3.0¢
• Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  Yes$5.2k @ 24.2¢
• Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$12.9k @ 87.0¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$6.9k @ 76.2¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$3.4k @ 9.3¢
• Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?Won
  No$5.9k @ 40.0¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Lost
  No$7.6k @ 71.4¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Won
  Yes$4.1k @ 43.6¢
• Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 1.0¢
• Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$33.9k @ 81.7¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$180.3k @ 56.7¢
• Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Lost
  No$33.3k @ 15.4¢
• Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  Yes$462 @ 48.0¢
• Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
  No$20.5k @ 86.6¢
• Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$15.9k @ 44.3¢

Current positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$133.2k @ 50.4¢
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$102.4k @ 85.5¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$92.2k @ 62.5¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$80.7k @ 45.9¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$76.5k @ 63.3¢
• Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$65.9k @ 84.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$54.3k @ 46.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$47.4k @ 56.3¢
• Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$31.5k @ 73.2¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$28.2k @ 39.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$27.3k @ 68.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$25.7k @ 32.3¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$20.5k @ 58.4¢
• Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$14.1k @ 72.0¢
• Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$7.9k @ 9.5¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$5.6k @ 34.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 28.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 27.7¢
• Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 64.1¢
• Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 30.9¢
• Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 17.9¢
• Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$702 @ 6.1¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?Politics
  No$299 @ 83.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Politics
  Yes$215 @ 83.0¢