0x1fe8…6e25

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1fe8885f82c4e395c8ba6dc1072113384f826e25
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-8.3pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

60% @ 68.6¢

Brier

0.208

Resolved

471

Avg size

$36

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (40/72)	+5%	72
Politics	86% (12/14)	+6%	14
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+15%	5
Sports	100% (2/2)	+47%	2
Science	100% (2/2)	+12%	2

Other72 bets
Hit rate
56% (40/72)
ROI
+5%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+15%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+47%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+12%

Track record

64% hit · 61/95

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	88.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$519	94.4¢	Won
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5	Under	$6	88.7¢	Won
Spread: Celtics (-19.5)	Celtics	$5	54.1¢	Lost
Pelicans vs. Knicks	Knicks	$3	77.0¢	Won
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	$3	87.0¢	Won
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$550	88.3¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Clippers	Clippers	$18	55.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Thunder	Thunder	$35	88.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Hornets	Hornets	$11	64.0¢	Won
Capitals vs. Devils	Capitals	$23	49.0¢	Lost
Spread: Raptors (-13.5)	Raptors	$28	49.0¢	Lost
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5	Under	$3	47.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	$758	88.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$7	61.0¢	Won
Jets vs. Stars	Jets	$17	42.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	$851	68.4¢	Won
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)	Lakers	$16	47.0¢	Lost
Suns vs. Grizzlies	Suns	$34	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)	Hawks	$28	49.0¢	Lost
Penguins vs. Lightning	Penguins	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)	Nuggets	$2	47.0¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Hawks	Hawks	$31	56.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	$414	57.3¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	$58	26.4¢	Lost
Red Wings vs. Penguins	Red Wings	$33	51.0¢	Lost
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks	Timberwolves	$32	74.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$1.1k	80.0¢	Won
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5	Under	$26	49.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$501	89.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.8k	85.1¢	Won
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5	Under	$2	49.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$263	78.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	Vitality	$483	65.0¢	Won
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)	76ers	$26	48.0¢	Won
Senators vs. Panthers	Senators	$35	63.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	$285	85.0¢	Won
Blues vs. Sharks	Blues	$36	51.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?	No	$150	59.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24?	No	$532	83.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?	No	$102	89.2¢	Won
Pelicans vs. Raptors	Raptors	$29	77.0¢	Won
Capitals vs. Utah	Capitals	$4	42.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$37	16.0¢	Lost
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Heat	$3	54.0¢	Won
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)	Heat	$2	50.0¢	Won

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 88.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$519 @ 94.4¢
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Won
Under$6 @ 88.7¢
Spread: Celtics (-19.5)Lost
Celtics$5 @ 54.1¢
Pelicans vs. KnicksWon
Knicks$3 @ 77.0¢
Bucks vs. Trail BlazersWon
Trail Blazers$3 @ 87.0¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$550 @ 88.3¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Spurs vs. ClippersLost
Clippers$18 @ 55.0¢
Pistons vs. ThunderWon
Thunder$35 @ 88.0¢
Knicks vs. HornetsWon
Hornets$11 @ 64.0¢
Capitals vs. DevilsLost
Capitals$23 @ 49.0¢
Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Lost
Raptors$28 @ 49.0¢
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Lost
Under$3 @ 47.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Lost
No$758 @ 88.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$7 @ 61.0¢
Jets vs. StarsLost
Jets$17 @ 42.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Won
No$851 @ 68.4¢
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Lost
Lakers$16 @ 47.0¢
Suns vs. GrizzliesWon
Suns$34 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Lost
Hawks$28 @ 49.0¢
Penguins vs. LightningLost
Penguins$20 @ 40.0¢
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Lost
Nuggets$2 @ 47.0¢
Celtics vs. HawksWon
Hawks$31 @ 56.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?Won
No$414 @ 57.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Cavaliers vs. PistonsLost
Pistons$58 @ 26.4¢
Red Wings vs. PenguinsLost
Red Wings$33 @ 51.0¢
Timberwolves vs. MavericksWon
Timberwolves$32 @ 74.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$1.1k @ 80.0¢
76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Lost
Under$26 @ 49.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$501 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 85.1¢
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Won
Under$2 @ 49.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$263 @ 78.6¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageWon
Vitality$483 @ 65.0¢
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Won
76ers$26 @ 48.0¢
Senators vs. PanthersLost
Senators$35 @ 63.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Won
No$285 @ 85.0¢
Blues vs. SharksLost
Blues$36 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?Lost
No$150 @ 59.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24?Won
No$532 @ 83.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15?Won
No$102 @ 89.2¢
Pelicans vs. RaptorsWon
Raptors$29 @ 77.0¢
Capitals vs. UtahWon
Capitals$4 @ 42.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$37 @ 16.0¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Won
Heat$3 @ 54.0¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Won
Heat$2 @ 50.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$351	94.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$272	87.0¢

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$351 @ 94.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$272 @ 87.0¢