0x1d5e…64dd

Specialization by sphere

• Other297 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (167/297)

  ROI

  +12%

• Tech39 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (23/39)

  ROI

  +2%

• Politics6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  -24%

• Culture5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  +17%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +48%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +5%

• Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$598 @ 13.6¢
• Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
• Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$29 @ 95.7¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$263 @ 11.4¢
• Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Lost
  No$320 @ 17.5¢
• Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
  Yes$92 @ 77.0¢
• Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Won
  No$65 @ 65.0¢
• Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
• NYC mayoral special election in 2024?Won
  No$195 @ 84.6¢
• NYC mayoral special election in 2024?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 15.2¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$3.2k @ 80.0¢
• Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Won
  No$854 @ 53.4¢
• Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$492 @ 46.8¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
  Yes$48 @ 80.0¢
• Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Lost
  No$15 @ 10.0¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
  Yes$492 @ 70.3¢
• Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
  Yes$73 @ 81.1¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
  No$49 @ 49.0¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
  Yes$16 @ 50.0¢
• Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1Won
  No$61 @ 61.0¢
• Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1Lost
  Yes$43 @ 35.8¢
• Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
  Yes$113 @ 49.6¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
  No$4.8k @ 62.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
  Yes$3.0k @ 34.2¢
• Will Trump say "Israel" during Lex interview?Won
  Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
• Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?Won
  No$123 @ 84.7¢
• Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 18.7¢
• Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Lost
  No$27 @ 53.0¢
• Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Won
  Yes$7 @ 37.0¢
• Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Won
  No$43 @ 43.0¢
• Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$136 @ 66.2¢
• Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
• Israel strike on Iran on June 27?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 15.4¢
• Fed rate cut by September meeting?Lost
  No$35 @ 51.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
  Yes$483 @ 78.2¢
• Khamenei seen in public by March 1?Won
  No$30 @ 76.0¢
• Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Lost
  No$148 @ 74.0¢
• Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?Won
  No$144 @ 72.0¢
• Netherlands Parliamentary Election: FVD vs SPWon
  FVD$25 @ 71.0¢
• $YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 18.7¢
• Khamenei seen in public by March 3?Won
  No$32 @ 81.0¢
• Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
• Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Lost
  No$38 @ 38.0¢
• Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Won
  Yes$63 @ 62.5¢
• 3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
• Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  Yes$20 @ 70.0¢
• Rainbow airdrop in 2024?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
• Will Taylor Swift say "Eras" during Tonight Show on October 6?Won
  Yes$387 @ 83.5¢
• Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?Won
  No$83 @ 87.0¢

Current positions

• Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$2.4k @ 79.2¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Tech
  No$2.1k @ 77.7¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?Tech
  Yes$575 @ 23.0¢
• Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?Politics
  No$470 @ 94.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?Tech
  No$364 @ 91.0¢
• Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Tech
  No$308 @ 77.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech
  Yes$248 @ 82.7¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?Tech
  No$204 @ 91.9¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$166 @ 83.0¢
• Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
  No$160 @ 80.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$130 @ 65.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
  Yes$129 @ 64.5¢
• Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?Business
  No$90 @ 86.0¢
• Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$49 @ 57.2¢
• Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Business
  No$47 @ 89.0¢
• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?Tech
  No$32 @ 87.7¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$15 @ 55.5¢
• OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Tech
  Yes$13 @ 35.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 80.0¢
• Ramp IPO before 2027?Business
  No$5 @ 93.0¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 25, 2026?Tech
  Yes$2 @ 2.0¢