0x1d3a…af38

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1d3a514fa58361f92cc384f79716de3f3b07af38
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+29.6pp

ROI

+1046%

Win rate

45% @ 15.4¢

Brier

0.338

Resolved

120

Avg size

$162

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (3/8)	+1509%	8
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	+275%	7
Other	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-5%	2

Politics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+1509%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+275%
Other4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-5%

Track record

33% hit · 7/21

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$200	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$528	8.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$274	7.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$94	1.7¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	45.6¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$141	18.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$31	14.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	$411	17.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$501	18.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$53	41.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Yes	$49	3.6¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?	Yes	$39	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Yes	$848	15.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?	Yes	$1.8k	16.3¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by July 31?	Yes	$10	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?	Yes	$77	28.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$10.9k	5.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	32.7¢	Won

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$200 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$528 @ 8.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$274 @ 7.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$94 @ 1.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 45.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$141 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$31 @ 14.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Lost
Yes$411 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Lost
Yes$501 @ 18.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 41.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?Lost
Yes$49 @ 3.6¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?Won
Yes$39 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Lost
Yes$848 @ 15.3¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 16.3¢
Netanyahu out by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Lost
Yes$77 @ 28.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$10.9k @ 5.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 32.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	Yes	$514	17.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$201	22.6¢

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
Yes$514 @ 17.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$201 @ 22.6¢