0x1cef…5961

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1cef0a9154d9a5a84a79fa8027eee2926b395961
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

47% @ 41.0¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

853

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	43% (41/95)	+20%	95
Other	33% (4/12)	-73%	12
Economy	67% (2/3)	+102%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	-31%	2

Sports95 bets
Hit rate
43% (41/95)
ROI
+20%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-73%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+102%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-31%

Track record

43% hit · 48/112

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	$14	40.0¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	$22	43.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$739	70.4¢	Won
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$13	26.6¢	Lost
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$3	74.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	$6	68.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.2k	62.3¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$486	21.5¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$135	65.8¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	No	$35	52.8¢	Won
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$73	48.7¢	Lost
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$25	50.0¢	Won
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	No	$140	70.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$227	65.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$145	39.2¢	Won
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$25	12.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$27	4.3¢	Lost
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$164	65.0¢	Won
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$19	6.8¢	Lost
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$18	24.2¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Lost
Will Greece win on 2026-10-04?	No	$38	76.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$2	70.0¢	Won
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$35	69.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$28	5.5¢	Lost
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$9	17.0¢	Lost
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	No	$38	76.0¢	Won
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$38	38.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$432	47.6¢	Lost
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$232	66.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$18	24.2¢	Lost
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-04?	No	$9	17.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$11	47.4¢	Won
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$52	51.4¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	No	$63	41.7¢	Lost
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$136	35.8¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.1k	35.7¢	Won
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$16	10.8¢	Lost
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$206	42.7¢	Lost
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$12	38.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	$96	60.6¢	Lost
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	No	$83	55.3¢	Won
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	No	$155	76.0¢	Lost
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	$27	26.5¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$36	21.4¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$38	74.2¢	Won

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?Lost
No$14 @ 40.0¢
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?Lost
No$22 @ 43.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$739 @ 70.4¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
No$13 @ 26.6¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 74.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?Won
No$6 @ 68.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.2k @ 62.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$486 @ 21.5¢
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$135 @ 65.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Won
No$35 @ 52.8¢
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
No$73 @ 48.7¢
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$25 @ 50.0¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?Lost
No$140 @ 70.0¢
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$227 @ 65.0¢
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$145 @ 39.2¢
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$25 @ 12.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.3¢
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
No$164 @ 65.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$19 @ 6.8¢
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
No$18 @ 24.2¢
Will Germany win on 2026-10-04?Lost
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Will Greece win on 2026-10-04?Won
No$38 @ 76.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$2 @ 70.0¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
No$35 @ 69.0¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$28 @ 5.5¢
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$9 @ 17.0¢
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?Won
No$38 @ 76.0¢
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$38 @ 38.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Lost
Yes$432 @ 47.6¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$232 @ 66.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 24.2¢
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-04?Lost
No$9 @ 17.0¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
No$11 @ 47.4¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$52 @ 51.4¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?Lost
No$63 @ 41.7¢
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$136 @ 35.8¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 35.7¢
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$16 @ 10.8¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$206 @ 42.7¢
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
No$12 @ 38.0¢
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$96 @ 60.6¢
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?Won
No$83 @ 55.3¢
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?Lost
No$155 @ 76.0¢
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?Won
Yes$27 @ 26.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$36 @ 21.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$38 @ 74.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Sports	No	$14	40.0¢

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?Sports
No$14 @ 40.0¢