0x1cc3…0615

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1cc31ab3bef8af3435d17080dc5a2c6138230615
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.9pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

53% @ 42.2¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

113

Avg size

$33

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (21/48)	+43%	48
Politics	29% (2/7)	-34%	7
Crypto	75% (3/4)	-7%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+26%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
44% (21/48)
ROI
+43%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-34%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-7%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 27/61

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	Yes	$20	47.6¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?	No	$192	62.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	84.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$12	30.5¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?	No	$1	28.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?	No	$168	71.4¢	Won
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store?	Yes	$5	14.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Yes	$534	48.3¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$40	33.0¢	Won
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?	No	$5	10.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$141	76.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$357	34.3¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	Yes	$19	23.0¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?	Yes	$51	83.2¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?	No	$10	78.6¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?	Yes	$20	71.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$103	79.2¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$95	31.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$37	4.4¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$20	12.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$243	73.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$48	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Yes	$15	12.9¢	Lost
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	No	$93	49.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 14?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?	No	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	No	$1	37.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	62.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	No	$20	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?	No	$52	55.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	62.8¢	Won
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$5	5.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	No	$23	90.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?	No	$1	69.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$444	68.3¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$1	12.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$45	32.7¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?	No	$9	8.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: December	No	$1	21.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	5.0¢	Lost
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	No	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$80	56.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$33	82.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$50	27.6¢	Lost
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$1	80.0¢	Won

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Lost
Yes$20 @ 47.6¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 80.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Won
No$192 @ 62.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 84.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 30.5¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?Won
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?Won
No$168 @ 71.4¢
'Tinder for kids' removed from App Store?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.4¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Won
Yes$534 @ 48.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 33.0¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Lost
No$5 @ 10.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$141 @ 76.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$357 @ 34.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.0¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?Won
Yes$51 @ 83.2¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Won
No$10 @ 78.6¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?Lost
Yes$20 @ 71.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$103 @ 79.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$95 @ 31.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$37 @ 4.4¢
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$20 @ 12.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$243 @ 73.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$48 @ 12.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 12.9¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Won
No$93 @ 49.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 33.0¢
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 37.2¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 62.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?Lost
No$20 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?Won
No$52 @ 55.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 62.8¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?Lost
No$5 @ 5.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 90.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?Won
No$1 @ 69.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$444 @ 68.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$45 @ 32.7¢
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?Lost
No$9 @ 8.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberLost
No$1 @ 21.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.0¢
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
No$20 @ 20.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$80 @ 56.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Won
No$33 @ 82.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 27.6¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 80.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Tech	Yes	$55	49.9¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$38	48.1¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$11	21.7¢

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Tech
Yes$55 @ 49.9¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$38 @ 48.1¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$11 @ 21.7¢