0x1cb6…93f6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1cb63fd92efcaaf359ffdf301c40674b2ed793f6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

86% @ 74.0¢

Brier

0.090

Resolved

166

Avg size

$138

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	79% (38/48)	+19%	48
Sports	75% (15/20)	-41%	20
Politics	82% (14/17)	+40%	17
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+22%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
79% (38/48)
ROI
+19%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
75% (15/20)
ROI
-41%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
82% (14/17)
ROI
+40%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

80% hit · 70/88

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$180	88.9¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$251	89.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$984	67.0¢	Lost
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	Yes	$151	85.2¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$153	85.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	13.9¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$48	36.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$683	71.6¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$472	68.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$431	78.2¢	Won
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5	Under	$50	80.8¢	Won
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	89.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$546	73.1¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$238	82.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$213	35.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$227	88.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$85	84.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?	Yes	$602	88.8¢	Won
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$106	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$491	79.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$101	79.5¢	Won
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva	Rina Saigo	$141	85.1¢	Won
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Over	$100	89.0¢	Won
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	No	$240	81.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" in Michigan?	Yes	$201	83.8¢	Won
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$620	63.9¢	Won
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$216	73.0¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$352	76.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$211	88.9¢	Won
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$48	90.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$181	89.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: July	Nothing	$103	80.7¢	Won
Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan Choinski	Frances Tiafoe	$352	75.3¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$60	80.0¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	No	$29	84.0¢	Won
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik	Taylor Fritz	$301	80.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$551	82.3¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$75	87.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	$224	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$101	84.2¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	Matteo Arnaldi	$198	86.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$125	74.7¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$5	5.6¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$677	84.3¢	Won
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$1.2k	50.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$239	11.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	$141	85.5¢	Won
Will Norway be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	$197	89.9¢	Won

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$180 @ 88.9¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$251 @ 89.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$984 @ 67.0¢
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?Won
Yes$151 @ 85.2¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$153 @ 85.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.9¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$48 @ 36.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$683 @ 71.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$472 @ 68.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$431 @ 78.2¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5Won
Under$50 @ 80.8¢
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$546 @ 73.1¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$238 @ 82.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$213 @ 35.5¢
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$227 @ 88.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$85 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?Won
Yes$602 @ 88.8¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Won
Yes$106 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Won
Yes$491 @ 79.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$101 @ 79.5¢
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja ZhiyenbayevaWon
Rina Saigo$141 @ 85.1¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5Won
Over$100 @ 89.0¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$240 @ 81.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Iran" in Michigan?Won
Yes$201 @ 83.8¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
Yes$620 @ 63.9¢
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?Won
Yes$216 @ 73.0¢
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$352 @ 76.1¢
Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$211 @ 88.9¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?Won
Yes$48 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$181 @ 89.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyWon
Nothing$103 @ 80.7¢
Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Jan ChoinskiWon
Frances Tiafoe$352 @ 75.3¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$60 @ 80.0¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$29 @ 84.0¢
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander BublikWon
Taylor Fritz$301 @ 80.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$551 @ 82.3¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$75 @ 87.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
No$224 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$101 @ 84.2¢
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiWon
Matteo Arnaldi$198 @ 86.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$125 @ 74.7¢
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$5 @ 5.6¢
Will England win on 2026-07-05?Won
Yes$677 @ 84.3¢
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 50.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$239 @ 11.7¢
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? (April 27 - May 3)Won
Yes$141 @ 85.5¢
Will Norway be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Won
No$197 @ 89.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$211	92.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Politics	No	$200	95.0¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$140	97.5¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?	—	No	$100	89.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$211 @ 92.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
No$200 @ 95.0¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$140 @ 97.5¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?—
No$100 @ 89.0¢