0x1c4c…8d85

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1c4cd350bce3cb791daf88ce2034de9b03318d85
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

27% @ 22.6¢

Brier

0.128

Resolved

4413

Avg size

$32

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (265/705)	+13%	705
Politics	44% (38/87)	+10%	87
Sports	15% (6/41)	-14%	41
Geopolitics	44% (11/25)	-12%	25
Culture	25% (1/4)	+43%	4
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other705 bets
Hit rate
38% (265/705)
ROI
+13%
Politics87 bets
Hit rate
44% (38/87)
ROI
+10%
Sports41 bets
Hit rate
15% (6/41)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
-12%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+43%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 321/863

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2,100,000?	Yes	$133	81.1¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$65	6.2¢	Lost
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	No	$2	7.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	No	$100	40.0¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 30 be between 5,500 and 6,000?	Yes	$7	35.5¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	No	$8	1.1¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$157	27.2¢	Lost
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$24	8.8¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	Yes	$43	11.5¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Hegseth say "This President" during press conference?	No	$48	48.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$37	6.6¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$1	39.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$65	6.5¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$238	9.9¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$929	17.0¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	No	$411	53.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$34	33.0¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	Yes	$87	29.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Next French confidence vote passes?	Yes	$71	11.1¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 11 be greater than 2,300,000?	No	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 11 be greater than 2,300,000?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?	Yes	$269	53.8¢	Lost
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	$162	13.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$596	59.6¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 27 be greater than 6,000?	Yes	$1	51.0¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 5,500 and 6,000?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will France win?	Yes	$136	68.0¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?	No	$64	75.0¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	Yes	$12	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	No	$71	35.0¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 28 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?	Yes	$94	47.4¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?	Yes	$7	10.5¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	$19	4.9¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$430	7.2¢	Lost
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?	Yes	$21	20.6¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	41.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$75	75.0¢	Won
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 25 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?	Yes	$126	42.8¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?	No	$55	25.0¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 - March 8 be between 16,000,000 and 16,500,000?	Yes	$12	15.5¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?	Yes	$167	53.5¢	Lost
Will Pierre Moscovici be the next Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost

Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2,100,000?Won
Yes$133 @ 81.1¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$65 @ 6.2¢
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 40.0¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 30 be between 5,500 and 6,000?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.5¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Lost
No$8 @ 1.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$157 @ 27.2¢
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.8¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Lost
Yes$43 @ 11.5¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Hegseth say "This President" during press conference?Won
No$48 @ 48.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$37 @ 6.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$65 @ 6.5¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$238 @ 9.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$929 @ 17.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?Lost
No$411 @ 53.4¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
No$34 @ 33.0¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Lost
Yes$87 @ 29.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Lost
Yes$71 @ 11.1¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 11 be greater than 2,300,000?Lost
No$4 @ 1.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 11 be greater than 2,300,000?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?Lost
Yes$269 @ 53.8¢
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?Lost
Yes$162 @ 13.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$596 @ 59.6¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 27 be greater than 6,000?Won
Yes$1 @ 51.0¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 5,500 and 6,000?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will France win?Won
Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?Won
No$64 @ 75.0¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Won
Yes$12 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Lost
No$71 @ 35.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 28 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?Lost
Yes$94 @ 47.4¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?Lost
Yes$7 @ 10.5¢
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?Lost
Yes$19 @ 4.9¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?Won
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$430 @ 7.2¢
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.6¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 41.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 25 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?Lost
Yes$126 @ 42.8¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Lost
No$55 @ 25.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 2 - March 8 be between 16,000,000 and 16,500,000?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.5¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?Lost
Yes$167 @ 53.5¢
Will Pierre Moscovici be the next Prime Minister of France?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$820	82.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$433	21.6¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?	Geopolitics	No	$199	39.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$144	14.4¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$95	30.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$84	17.6¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$80	8.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$58	38.4¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$51	46.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$36	85.9¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$32	12.8¢
Russia military action against an EU country by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$21	3.0¢
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	91.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	39.0¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$10	1.5¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	3.9¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4	0.4¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	7.6¢
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.7¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	32.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	15.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$820 @ 82.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$433 @ 21.6¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?Geopolitics
No$199 @ 39.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$144 @ 14.4¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$95 @ 30.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$84 @ 17.6¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$80 @ 8.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 22, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$58 @ 38.4¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by October 31?Politics
Yes$51 @ 46.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$36 @ 85.9¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$32 @ 12.8¢
Russia military action against an EU country by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$21 @ 3.0¢
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 91.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 39.0¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$10 @ 1.5¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 3.9¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 7.6¢
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 27, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢