0x1b60…a55b

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics56 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (41/56)

  ROI

  +38%

• Other41 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (22/41)

  ROI

  +121%

• Tech7 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (6/7)

  ROI

  -23%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  -14%

• Economy3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +9%

• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$159 @ 48.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$956 @ 68.3¢
• Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$121 @ 89.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 8.0¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
  No$169 @ 70.0¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$400 @ 83.1¢
• Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Lost
  No$50 @ 10.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
  No$900 @ 88.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
• Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 86.8¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
  No$300 @ 33.2¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$6.6k @ 63.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?Won
  No$81 @ 81.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$200 @ 47.0¢
• Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 0.6¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$186 @ 74.3¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$175 @ 30.8¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 60.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 22.0¢
• Starmer out by June 23, 2026?Lost
  No$206 @ 28.1¢
• Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?Won
  Yes$478 @ 83.9¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
  Yes$563 @ 13.9¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$1.5k @ 84.0¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
  Yes$237 @ 23.6¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.3k @ 53.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$8.5k @ 50.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$340 @ 34.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 72.0¢
• Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 80.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$461 @ 48.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 7.6¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Won
  Yes$16.6k @ 25.7¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$95 @ 38.0¢
• Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 74.7¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$140 @ 28.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 71.4¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 78.1¢
• Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in July?Lost
  No$108 @ 54.0¢
• Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$179 @ 89.4¢
• Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
  No$200 @ 24.2¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$502 @ 87.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$401 @ 79.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$27 @ 38.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 10.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$7.4k @ 74.0¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  Yes$9.4k @ 68.9¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
  No$1000 @ 87.1¢
• Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
  Yes$379 @ 8.8¢
• Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
  Yes$232 @ 45.9¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$890 @ 89.0¢

Current positions

• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  No$9.2k @ 92.0¢
• Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7.1k @ 90.6¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5.2k @ 81.9¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$4.9k @ 88.9¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 90.2¢
• Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 90.5¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$3.2k @ 58.1¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 89.2¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 76.7¢
• Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 93.6¢
• Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.4k @ 79.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 63.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 22.1¢
• Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 93.2¢
• Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 89.7¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 21.2¢
• Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 64.3¢
• Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 79.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 78.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 48.9¢
• Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
  No$930 @ 93.0¢
• US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$929 @ 92.9¢
• Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
  Yes$923 @ 87.1¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$900 @ 90.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$880 @ 88.0¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$529 @ 89.0¢
• OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
  No$460 @ 92.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics
  No$400 @ 81.1¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$398 @ 94.0¢