0x1b60…a55b

Specialization by sphere

• Other31 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (17/31)

  ROI

  +130%

• Politics28 bets

  Hit rate

  79% (22/28)

  ROI

  +44%

• Tech5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +32%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  -22%

• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$159 @ 48.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$956 @ 68.3¢
• Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$121 @ 89.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 8.0¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
  No$169 @ 70.0¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$400 @ 83.1¢
• Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Lost
  No$50 @ 10.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
  No$900 @ 88.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
• Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 86.8¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
  No$300 @ 33.2¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$6.6k @ 63.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?Won
  No$81 @ 81.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$200 @ 47.0¢
• Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 0.6¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$186 @ 74.3¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$175 @ 30.8¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 60.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 22.0¢
• Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19?Won
  Yes$478 @ 83.9¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
  Yes$563 @ 13.9¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$1.5k @ 84.0¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
  Yes$237 @ 23.6¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.3k @ 53.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$8.5k @ 50.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$340 @ 34.0¢
• Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 80.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$461 @ 48.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 7.6¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Won
  Yes$16.6k @ 25.7¢
• Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 74.7¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$140 @ 28.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 71.4¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 78.1¢
• Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  No$179 @ 89.4¢
• Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
  No$200 @ 24.2¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
  No$502 @ 87.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
  Yes$401 @ 79.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$27 @ 38.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 10.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$7.4k @ 74.0¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
  Yes$9.4k @ 68.9¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
  No$1000 @ 87.1¢
• Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
  Yes$379 @ 8.8¢
• Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
  Yes$232 @ 45.9¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$890 @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 32.9¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Won
  No$2.7k @ 72.0¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$30 @ 10.8¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$89 @ 89.0¢

Current positions

• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  No$9.2k @ 92.0¢
• Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7.1k @ 90.6¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$6.2k @ 90.9¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$4.9k @ 88.9¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$4.2k @ 79.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.9k @ 78.0¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 90.2¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 89.2¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 76.7¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 90.7¢
• Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$2.8k @ 94.0¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
  Yes$2.8k @ 92.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$2.4k @ 80.6¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$2.4k @ 79.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 63.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 66.8¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 68.6¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 50.4¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 86.1¢
• Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 2.4¢
• Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 89.7¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 85.5¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 21.2¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 79.0¢
• Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 79.5¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
  No$1.0k @ 94.0¢
• Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Politics
  No$1000 @ 70.4¢
• Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$940 @ 94.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$931 @ 45.6¢