0x1a3f…6dea

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1a3fb05e94caef23e28905767cd603eb574a6dea
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.6pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

58% @ 45.8¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

Avg size

$1.7k

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (17/40)	-2%	40
Politics	40% (2/5)	+24%	5
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+115%	2

Other40 bets
Hit rate
43% (17/40)
ROI
-2%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+115%

Track record

45% hit · 21/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	Yes	$155	7.7¢	Lost
Will Biden say "Israel" at DNC speech?	No	$92	78.9¢	Won
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	Carlos Alcaraz	$250	48.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$500	8.5¢	Lost
Mariners vs. Blue Jays	Blue Jays	$612	55.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC speech?	No	$50	15.0¢	Lost
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?	Yes	$1.1k	80.5¢	Won
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	No	$2.0k	16.9¢	Won
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	Yes	$5.0k	83.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$52.4k	46.4¢	Won
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	$4.3k	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$2.0k	49.3¢	Won
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?	No	$6.7k	88.0¢	Won
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?	No	$500	85.4¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech?	No	$50	24.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech?	No	$75	18.5¢	Lost
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	No	$2.5k	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'beautiful' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$1.2k	85.4¢	Lost
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?	Yes	$876	23.5¢	Won
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?	Yes	$250	7.0¢	Lost
US military action against Iran before July?	No	$5.0k	38.9¢	Lost
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?	No	$1000	33.2¢	Lost
Devils vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	$165	52.0¢	Lost
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?	Yes	$100	29.3¢	Won
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?	No	$1.0k	74.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$672	26.1¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$10.3k	35.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?	No	$2.0k	68.0¢	Lost
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?	No	$1000	74.3¢	Lost
Canada election called before April?	No	$500	40.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$51.4k	67.7¢	Won
Timberwolves vs. Lakers	Timberwolves	$475	32.0¢	Won
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	$73	36.0¢	Lost
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?	No	$600	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$100	41.0¢	Lost
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	$1000	35.1¢	Lost
Broncos vs. Jets	Broncos	$356	58.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	55.0¢	Won
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?	Yes	$1.0k	39.8¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?	No	$350	14.5¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	$125	13.1¢	Lost
Will Walz say "debate" at DNC speech?	No	$116	50.6¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?	Yes	$500	38.0¢	Lost
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	Yes	$229	8.0¢	Lost
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?	No	$2.5k	40.9¢	Won
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$2.4k	8.1¢	Lost
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?	No	$2.2k	10.7¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Lost
Yes$155 @ 7.7¢
Will Biden say "Israel" at DNC speech?Won
No$92 @ 78.9¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerLost
Carlos Alcaraz$250 @ 48.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$500 @ 8.5¢
Mariners vs. Blue JaysWon
Blue Jays$612 @ 55.0¢
Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC speech?Lost
No$50 @ 15.0¢
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 80.5¢
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Won
No$2.0k @ 16.9¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$52.4k @ 46.4¢
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$2.0k @ 49.3¢
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?Won
No$6.7k @ 88.0¢
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?Won
No$500 @ 85.4¢
Will Kamala Harris say "abortion" during DNC speech?Lost
No$50 @ 24.0¢
Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech?Lost
No$75 @ 18.5¢
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Won
No$2.5k @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say 'beautiful' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$1.2k @ 85.4¢
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?Won
Yes$876 @ 23.5¢
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?Lost
Yes$250 @ 7.0¢
US military action against Iran before July?Lost
No$5.0k @ 38.9¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?Lost
No$1000 @ 33.2¢
Devils vs. Maple LeafsLost
Maple Leafs$165 @ 52.0¢
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?Won
Yes$100 @ 29.3¢
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?Won
No$1.0k @ 74.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$672 @ 26.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$10.3k @ 35.0¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Lost
No$2.0k @ 68.0¢
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election? Lost
No$1000 @ 74.3¢
Canada election called before April?Lost
No$500 @ 40.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$51.4k @ 67.7¢
Timberwolves vs. LakersWon
Timberwolves$475 @ 32.0¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Lost
Yes$73 @ 36.0¢
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?Won
No$600 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$100 @ 41.0¢
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 35.1¢
Broncos vs. JetsWon
Broncos$356 @ 58.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 55.0¢
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 39.8¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?Lost
No$350 @ 14.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Lost
Yes$125 @ 13.1¢
Will Walz say "debate" at DNC speech?Won
No$116 @ 50.6¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?Lost
Yes$500 @ 38.0¢
Xi Jinping out in 2025?Lost
Yes$229 @ 8.0¢
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?Won
No$2.5k @ 40.9¢
Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 8.1¢
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?Lost
No$2.2k @ 10.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$35.2k	42.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10.0k	35.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Politics	Yes	$250	13.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Politics	Yes	$125	13.1¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$72	36.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$35.2k @ 42.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10.0k @ 35.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Politics
Yes$250 @ 13.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Politics
Yes$125 @ 13.1¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$72 @ 36.0¢