0x1964…5e04

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x196496d512ecb6b192a61aad1a115068fe8b5e04
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

74% @ 62.8¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

268

Avg size

$21

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	71% (77/108)	+6%	108
Politics	92% (12/13)	+63%	13
Tech	60% (6/10)	-39%	10
Geopolitics	88% (7/8)	+30%	8
Culture	33% (2/6)	-3%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-42%	3
Science	33% (1/3)	+30%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other108 bets
Hit rate
71% (77/108)
ROI
+6%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+63%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
-39%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+30%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-3%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-42%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+30%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

70% hit · 106/152

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?	Yes	$100	34.3¢	Lost
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?	Yes	$28	9.2¢	Lost
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?	Yes	$100	48.4¢	Lost
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	35.4¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?	Yes	$20	1.4¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?	No	$200	81.5¢	Won
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?	No	$100	64.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	$220	53.2¢	Lost
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$15	70.0¢	Won
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	No	$75	82.8¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$375	72.8¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Lost
VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?	No	$70	64.9¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	Yes	$45	58.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	$101	63.8¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	76.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	No	$20	75.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$30	68.0¢	Won
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?	No	$5	80.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$20	71.0¢	Won
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?	Yes	$5	80.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?	No	$158	70.0¢	Lost
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?	No	$50	88.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$5	88.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$306	62.7¢	Won
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?	No	$51	43.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	$137	60.8¢	Won
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	No	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by March 31?	No	$10	4.7¢	Lost
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	$55	87.1¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$15	67.5¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Will Victor Glover be chosen for the Artemis III mission?	No	$50	83.9¢	Won
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$61	75.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?	Yes	$11	63.9¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	No	$20	60.6¢	Won
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	$5	19.9¢	Lost
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	$4	23.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?	No	$1	39.7¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?	Yes	$9	87.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Polling" this week?	No	$10	59.0¢	Lost
Will John Fleming drop out?	No	$111	80.2¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?	No	$20	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$30	79.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$50	69.3¢	Won
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$5	33.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$30	71.0¢	Won
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?	No	$10	65.9¢	Won

Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?Lost
Yes$100 @ 34.3¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?Lost
Yes$28 @ 9.2¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?Lost
Yes$100 @ 48.4¢
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.4¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.4¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?Won
No$200 @ 81.5¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 21-September 27?Won
No$100 @ 64.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Lost
No$220 @ 53.2¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$15 @ 70.0¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Won
No$75 @ 82.8¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$375 @ 72.8¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$70 @ 64.9¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Lost
Yes$45 @ 58.0¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 63.8¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 76.7¢
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?Won
No$20 @ 75.1¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$30 @ 68.0¢
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?Won
No$5 @ 80.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$20 @ 71.0¢
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?Lost
Yes$5 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Lost
No$158 @ 70.0¢
Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?Won
No$50 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$306 @ 62.7¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?Lost
No$51 @ 43.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$137 @ 60.8¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Lost
No$10 @ 61.0¢
Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 4.7¢
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?Won
No$55 @ 87.1¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$15 @ 67.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 34.0¢
Will Victor Glover be chosen for the Artemis III mission?Won
No$50 @ 83.9¢
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
No$61 @ 75.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 63.9¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Won
No$20 @ 60.6¢
Will the US strike Syria next?Lost
No$5 @ 19.9¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Won
No$4 @ 23.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 39.7¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.8¢
Will Trump say "Polling" this week?Lost
No$10 @ 59.0¢
Will John Fleming drop out?Won
No$111 @ 80.2¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?Won
No$20 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$50 @ 69.3¢
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$5 @ 33.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 71.0¢
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 65.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?	Tech	No	$310	90.2¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	Culture	No	$300	75.0¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Geopolitics	No	$300	87.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?	Culture	No	$300	78.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	Culture	No	$210	93.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	Culture	No	$200	75.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?	Culture	No	$110	92.5¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?	Geopolitics	No	$100	80.8¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?	Geopolitics	No	$100	74.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	79.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?	Geopolitics	No	$100	77.6¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?	Culture	Yes	$100	48.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?	Culture	Yes	$93	34.3¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?	Geopolitics	No	$50	82.1¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?	Geopolitics	No	$50	82.2¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 1?	Geopolitics	No	$50	85.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	—	No	$50	51.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?	Geopolitics	No	$40	80.0¢
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 5, 2026?	Tech	No	$30	82.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?	Culture	Yes	$28	9.2¢
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	38.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Culture	No	$20	42.0¢

Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 4, 2026?Tech
No$310 @ 90.2¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?Culture
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Geopolitics
No$300 @ 87.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?Culture
No$300 @ 78.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?Culture
No$210 @ 93.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?Culture
No$200 @ 75.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?Culture
No$110 @ 92.5¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 80.8¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 74.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 11?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 79.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 3?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 77.6¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?Culture
Yes$100 @ 48.4¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?Culture
Yes$93 @ 34.3¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 82.1¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 82.2¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 1?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 85.0¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?—
No$50 @ 51.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?Geopolitics
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 5, 2026?Tech
No$30 @ 82.0¢
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?Culture
Yes$28 @ 9.2¢
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 38.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
No$20 @ 42.0¢