0x1963…9bfd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1963eabad7eb7499fb049ddebb96a8fd22179bfd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+111%

Win rate

8% @ 2.8¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

1263

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	9% (10/116)	+182%	116
Crypto	3% (1/29)	-89%	29
Politics	0% (0/13)	-100%	13
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other116 bets
Hit rate
9% (10/116)
ROI
+182%
Crypto29 bets
Hit rate
3% (1/29)
ROI
-89%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/13)
ROI
-100%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

7% hit · 11/166

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?	Yes	$25	16.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?	No	$385	3.3¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$10	5.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?	Yes	$16	10.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6?	Yes	$13	3.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	No	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	$16	0.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$475	5.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	$19	1.0¢	Lost
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	$4	2.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 30?	No	$11	0.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	$101	8.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?	No	$182	0.5¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?	Yes	$65	6.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?	No	$110	0.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?	Yes	$16	0.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Yes	$16	3.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 24?	No	$1	2.6¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$9	8.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$107	11.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5?	Yes	$24	0.5¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on September 15?	Yes	$1.3k	22.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 30?	Yes	$6	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?	No	$54	8.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19?	No	$157	1.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 63,200 on August 1, 9PM ET?	Yes	$6	6.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 1?	No	$261	1.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 4?	No	$33	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5?	No	$9	36.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 28?	No	$18	11.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 22?	No	$105	1.7¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 30?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?	Yes	$419	13.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19?	No	$32	0.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?	No	$82	1.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18?	No	$13	0.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8?	Yes	$37	0.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$6.2k	56.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 11?	No	$15	0.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?	Yes	$16	1.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?	No	$387	6.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 4?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Yes	$14	1.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$54	14.0¢	Lost
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on August 4?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?Won
Yes$25 @ 16.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?Lost
No$385 @ 3.3¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$10 @ 5.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?Lost
Yes$16 @ 10.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6?Lost
Yes$13 @ 3.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?Lost
No$6 @ 1.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$475 @ 5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.0¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Lost
No$4 @ 2.1¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 30?Lost
No$11 @ 0.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Lost
Yes$101 @ 8.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?Lost
No$182 @ 0.5¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?Lost
Yes$65 @ 6.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?Lost
No$110 @ 0.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Lost
Yes$16 @ 3.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 24?Won
No$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$9 @ 8.5¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$107 @ 11.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 5?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on September 15?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 22.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?Won
No$54 @ 8.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 19?Lost
No$157 @ 1.3¢
Bitcoin above 63,200 on August 1, 9PM ET?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 1?Lost
No$261 @ 1.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 4?Lost
No$33 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5?Lost
No$9 @ 36.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 28?Lost
No$18 @ 11.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 22?Won
No$105 @ 1.7¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?Lost
Yes$419 @ 13.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19?Lost
No$32 @ 0.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 22?Won
No$82 @ 1.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18?Lost
No$13 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8?Lost
Yes$37 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$6.2k @ 56.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 11?Lost
No$15 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 1.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?Lost
No$387 @ 6.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$54 @ 14.0¢
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on August 4?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	6.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	11.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	5.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	6.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$959	1.8¢
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$942	0.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$852	11.3¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$233	3.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$201	25.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$184	1.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$175	3.5¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$125	5.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$76	1.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$67	5.1¢
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	14.0¢
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$43	8.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$23	8.0¢
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	5.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	2.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	6.7¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$13	3.1¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	11.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$8	1.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	5.0¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Politics	No	$4	2.1¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4	0.1¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$3	0.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	16.7¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 6.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 11.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 5.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 6.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$959 @ 1.8¢
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$942 @ 0.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$852 @ 11.3¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$233 @ 3.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$201 @ 25.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$184 @ 1.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$175 @ 3.5¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
Yes$125 @ 5.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$76 @ 1.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$67 @ 5.1¢
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 14.0¢
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$43 @ 8.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$23 @ 8.0¢
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 5.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 2.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 6.7¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$13 @ 3.1¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$8 @ 1.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 5.0¢
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Politics
No$4 @ 2.1¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 16.7¢