0x1934…0a4b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x19344b25b205a60fa61fa99621f01a22df3c0a4b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

3% @ 4.4¢

Brier

0.021

Resolved

6011

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	9% (8/89)	+20%	89
Politics	0% (0/16)	-100%	16
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5

Other89 bets
Hit rate
9% (8/89)
ROI
+20%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/16)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%

Track record

7% hit · 8/110

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$3.2k	7.6¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$7	0.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$298	1.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$131	1.2¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$1.9k	5.8¢	Lost
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$40	2.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$833	49.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$17	0.6¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	$62	4.6¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$206	1.7¢	Lost
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	$249	4.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$230	2.3¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	No	$990	9.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$265	6.6¢	Lost
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?	Yes	$7	0.3¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$250	25.0¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$1.3k	32.5¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$31	5.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$323	14.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$78	1.3¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	$374	11.0¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$14	10.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$7.5k	37.5¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$54	0.9¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$3.3k	21.5¢	Lost
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?	Yes	$94	4.7¢	Lost
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Yes	$2.1k	3.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$923	10.8¢	Lost
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?	Yes	$21	2.1¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$236	1.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$43	0.9¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?	Yes	$132	26.4¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	$40	5.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$63	1.0¢	Lost
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?	Yes	$581	11.6¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$705	0.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$84	1.4¢	Lost
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	Yes	$578	5.8¢	Lost
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$260	13.0¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$63	0.9¢	Lost
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	8.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2.4k	11.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$500	2.5¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$900	22.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$300	6.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	$253	6.2¢	Lost
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?	Yes	$198	7.6¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?	Yes	$6	0.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$73	1.2¢	Lost

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 7.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$298 @ 1.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$131 @ 1.2¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 5.8¢
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 2.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$833 @ 49.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$17 @ 0.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Lost
Yes$62 @ 4.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$206 @ 1.7¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$249 @ 4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$230 @ 2.3¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
No$990 @ 9.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$265 @ 6.6¢
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$250 @ 25.0¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 32.5¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$31 @ 5.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$323 @ 14.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$78 @ 1.3¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Lost
Yes$374 @ 11.0¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Won
Yes$14 @ 10.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 37.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$54 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 21.5¢
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?Lost
Yes$94 @ 4.7¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 3.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$923 @ 10.8¢
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.1¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$236 @ 1.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$43 @ 0.9¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Lost
Yes$132 @ 26.4¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Lost
Yes$40 @ 5.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$63 @ 1.0¢
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?Lost
Yes$581 @ 11.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$705 @ 0.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$84 @ 1.4¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Lost
Yes$578 @ 5.8¢
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$63 @ 0.9¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 8.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 11.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$500 @ 2.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$900 @ 22.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 6.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Lost
Yes$253 @ 6.2¢
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Lost
Yes$198 @ 7.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$73 @ 1.2¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$22.1k	8.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.7k	7.8¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$199	6.1¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$114	6.9¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$68	4.8¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$55	11.0¢
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$31	1.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	25.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	7.1¢

Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$22.1k @ 8.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.7k @ 7.8¢
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$199 @ 6.1¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$114 @ 6.9¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?Politics
Yes$68 @ 4.8¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$55 @ 11.0¢
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?Politics
Yes$31 @ 1.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 7.1¢