0x16ef…92b6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x16ef8eaac2a7d8c45eb64d1268feadaaf94592b6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.3pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

63% @ 47.6¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

Avg size

$229

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (10/25)	+23%	25
Tech	100% (5/5)	+28%	5
Sports	50% (1/2)	+47%	2

Other25 bets
Hit rate
40% (10/25)
ROI
+23%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+28%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+47%

Track record

50% hit · 16/32

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$204	59.0¢	Won
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on February 16?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$84	15.4¢	Won
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$49	14.0¢	Lost
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$2	7.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	80.3¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025?	No	$30	57.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	76.7¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?	Yes	$8	26.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$901	60.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	83.8¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?	Yes	$69	57.8¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?	Yes	$5	65.0¢	Lost
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$1	4.5¢	Lost
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$407	28.1¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	No	$103	29.9¢	Won
Champions League Final: 3+ goals?	No	$15	41.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	82.7¢	Won
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	$398	66.3¢	Won
Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March?	Yes	$9	8.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?	Yes	$1.1k	72.2¢	Won
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	67.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	84.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?	Yes	$30	45.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$500	4.7¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	$31	40.0¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$56	30.0¢	Lost

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$204 @ 59.0¢
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on February 16?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?Won
Yes$84 @ 15.4¢
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$49 @ 14.0¢
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 80.3¢
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025?Lost
No$30 @ 57.0¢
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 76.7¢
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 26.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$901 @ 60.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 83.8¢
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?Won
Yes$69 @ 57.8¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 65.0¢
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?Lost
Yes$407 @ 28.1¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 29.9¢
Champions League Final: 3+ goals?Lost
No$15 @ 41.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-17?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 82.7¢
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Won
Yes$398 @ 66.3¢
Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March?Lost
Yes$9 @ 8.4¢
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 72.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 67.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 84.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29?Lost
Yes$30 @ 45.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$500 @ 4.7¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Lost
Yes$31 @ 40.0¢
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$56 @ 30.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$500	33.1¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Sports	Yes	$30	40.0¢
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on February 16?	—	Yes	$10	3.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	—	No	$1	0.3¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$500 @ 33.1¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?Sports
Yes$30 @ 40.0¢
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on February 16?—
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?—
No$1 @ 0.3¢