0x169b…30c9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x169b8e2a1d5a3e9d840a08074a090afa82a730c9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.6pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

67% @ 63.9¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

1801

Avg size

$26

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (162/256)	+7%	256
Politics	86% (6/7)	+24%	7
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	-13%	5
Sports	50% (1/2)	-13%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other256 bets
Hit rate
63% (162/256)
ROI
+7%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-13%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-13%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

64% hit · 173/272

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Google reach $405 in February?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$73	74.9¢	Lost
Will Alexandr Stoianoglo win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?	Yes	$2	14.7¢	Lost
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?	Yes	$57	77.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$172	78.0¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	No	$347	86.8¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	No	$261	73.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6?	Yes	$151	84.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$1.4k	79.9¢	Won
Will $BTC reach 70k before October?	No	$18	88.8¢	Won
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?	No	$191	87.0¢	Won
Will Tesla reach $503 in February?	No	$35	70.0¢	Won
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$53	66.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Lex interview?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Lost
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?	Yes	$137	52.3¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$144	32.8¢	Lost
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	No	$327	82.6¢	Won
Will Google dip to $250 in February?	Yes	$2	2.3¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$127	72.7¢	Won
US-EU trade deal before June?	No	$353	77.8¢	Won
Megaquake by December 31?	No	$260	87.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?	No	$6	84.0¢	Won
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Playoffs	Riyadh Falcons	$13	26.8¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$23	38.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	No	$1.6k	77.9¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?	No	$130	49.1¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?	Yes	$35	50.0¢	Won
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	$48	88.0¢	Won
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?	No	$18	17.8¢	Lost
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Yes	$444	82.0¢	Won
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?	No	$103	21.5¢	Won
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$460	85.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$4	6.6¢	Lost
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Gukesh	$1.4k	73.2¢	Won
Will Uzbekistan win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?	No	$36	89.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	$469	51.6¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$25	49.0¢	Lost
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?	No	$69	86.5¢	Won
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5)	G2 Minnesota	$13	65.0¢	Won
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?	No	$66	82.9¢	Won
Israel military response against Iran in October?	Yes	$339	86.2¢	Won
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	Yes	$223	60.3¢	Won
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$158	68.7¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$139	77.4¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition	Yes	$62	89.0¢	Won
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?	No	$362	65.7¢	Won
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	No	$33	38.8¢	Won
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?	No	$34	84.0¢	Won
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?	Yes	$5	48.0¢	Lost

Will Google reach $405 in February?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$73 @ 74.9¢
Will Alexandr Stoianoglo win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.7¢
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?Won
Yes$57 @ 77.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$172 @ 78.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Won
No$347 @ 86.8¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Lost
No$261 @ 73.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6?Won
Yes$151 @ 84.2¢
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 79.9¢
Will $BTC reach 70k before October?Won
No$18 @ 88.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?Won
No$191 @ 87.0¢
Will Tesla reach $503 in February?Won
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$53 @ 66.8¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Lex interview?Lost
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?Won
Yes$137 @ 52.3¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
No$144 @ 32.8¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Won
No$327 @ 82.6¢
Will Google dip to $250 in February?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.3¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$127 @ 72.7¢
US-EU trade deal before June?Won
No$353 @ 77.8¢
Megaquake by December 31?Won
No$260 @ 87.8¢
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?Won
No$6 @ 84.0¢
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major PlayoffsLost
Riyadh Falcons$13 @ 26.8¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 38.8¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Lost
No$1.6k @ 77.9¢
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?Lost
No$130 @ 49.1¢
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?Won
Yes$35 @ 50.0¢
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
No$48 @ 88.0¢
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?Lost
No$18 @ 17.8¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Won
Yes$444 @ 82.0¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Won
No$103 @ 21.5¢
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$460 @ 85.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.6¢
World Chess Championship 2024 WinnerWon
Gukesh$1.4k @ 73.2¢
Will Uzbekistan win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?Won
No$36 @ 89.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
No$469 @ 51.6¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 49.0¢
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?Won
No$69 @ 86.5¢
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5)Won
G2 Minnesota$13 @ 65.0¢
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?Won
No$66 @ 82.9¢
Israel military response against Iran in October?Won
Yes$339 @ 86.2¢
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?Won
Yes$223 @ 60.3¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Won
Yes$158 @ 68.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$139 @ 77.4¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon EditionWon
Yes$62 @ 89.0¢
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?Won
No$362 @ 65.7¢
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?Won
No$33 @ 38.8¢
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?Won
No$34 @ 84.0¢
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 48.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$924	91.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$364	82.8¢
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$232	64.2¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$223	93.1¢
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$190	43.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$148	18.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$126	91.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$77	96.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	—	No	$58	96.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Sports	Yes	$25	62.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$9	43.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$924 @ 91.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$364 @ 82.8¢
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$232 @ 64.2¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$223 @ 93.1¢
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$190 @ 43.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$148 @ 18.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$126 @ 91.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$77 @ 96.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?—
No$58 @ 96.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Sports
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
Yes$9 @ 43.0¢