0x166a…d7ed

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x166a49699aba5d7a9ce3142450062deedf83d7ed
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

46% @ 38.8¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

3287

Avg size

$35

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (119/236)	+20%	236
Other	33% (62/187)	+1%	187
Sports	33% (27/83)	-14%	83
Geopolitics	58% (46/79)	+4%	79

Politics236 bets
Hit rate
50% (119/236)
ROI
+20%
Other187 bets
Hit rate
33% (62/187)
ROI
+1%
Sports83 bets
Hit rate
33% (27/83)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics79 bets
Hit rate
58% (46/79)
ROI
+4%

Track record

43% hit · 254/585

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$19	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$315	63.0¢	Won
Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends?	Yes	$3	33.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$126	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$80	40.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	$28	55.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	$37	38.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	$106	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	$21	48.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	$118	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	$53	35.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	$50	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	$191	31.0¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$168	56.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	42.3¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$125	20.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	16.6¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$36	71.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$10	67.0¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$177	39.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$112	56.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$43	21.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$54	21.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$42	42.4¢	Won
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$257	63.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$489	81.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$466	13.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$49	4.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	No	$38	73.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.1k	57.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	25.3¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$43	85.0¢	Won
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$26	66.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$83	15.6¢	Lost
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$27	6.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$27	4.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$1.5k	49.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$8	26.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	5.4¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Won
Wales vs. Norway: Norway O/U 3.5	Over	$2	19.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1.1k	38.9¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$19 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$315 @ 63.0¢
Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends?Lost
Yes$3 @ 33.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherLost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$126 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$80 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Lost
Yes$28 @ 55.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Lost
Yes$37 @ 38.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
No$106 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
Yes$21 @ 48.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
No$118 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Lost
Yes$53 @ 35.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Won
No$50 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Lost
Yes$191 @ 31.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$168 @ 56.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 42.3¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$125 @ 20.5¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$6 @ 16.6¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$36 @ 71.6¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$10 @ 67.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$177 @ 39.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$112 @ 56.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$43 @ 21.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$54 @ 21.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$42 @ 42.4¢
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$257 @ 63.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$489 @ 81.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$466 @ 13.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$49 @ 4.1¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Won
No$38 @ 73.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 57.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 25.3¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$43 @ 85.0¢
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$26 @ 66.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$83 @ 15.6¢
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$27 @ 6.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$27 @ 4.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 49.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$8 @ 26.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.4¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
Wales vs. Norway: Norway O/U 3.5Lost
Over$2 @ 19.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1.1k @ 38.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.5k	79.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.9k	87.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.5k	66.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$687	85.8¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	Politics	No	$609	87.0¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$588	94.4¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$506	88.1¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$502	83.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$491	89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$416	83.2¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	Politics	No	$377	61.7¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$357	87.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$328	93.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	Politics	No	$285	92.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$270	33.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$270	61.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$254	50.7¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$249	1.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$221	86.7¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$219	31.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$186	93.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$183	92.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$180	20.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$160	14.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$155	44.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$147	73.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?	Politics	No	$144	72.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$143	65.0¢
Ukraine peace referendum passed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$140	93.6¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$137	70.4¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$5.5k @ 79.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.9k @ 87.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.5k @ 66.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$687 @ 85.8¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?Politics
No$609 @ 87.0¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$588 @ 94.4¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$506 @ 88.1¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$502 @ 83.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$491 @ 89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$416 @ 83.2¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Politics
No$377 @ 61.7¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$357 @ 87.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$328 @ 93.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?Politics
No$285 @ 92.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$270 @ 33.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$270 @ 61.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$254 @ 50.7¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$249 @ 1.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$221 @ 86.7¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$219 @ 31.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$186 @ 93.2¢
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$183 @ 92.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
Yes$180 @ 20.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$160 @ 14.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$155 @ 44.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$147 @ 73.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Politics
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$143 @ 65.0¢
Ukraine peace referendum passed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$140 @ 93.6¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$137 @ 70.4¢