0x166a…d7ed

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x166a49699aba5d7a9ce3142450062deedf83d7ed
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

36% @ 31.9¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

3628

Avg size

$29

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (61/187)	-6%	187
Politics	51% (76/149)	+21%	149
Sports	33% (19/57)	-11%	57
Geopolitics	49% (21/43)	-4%	43

Other187 bets
Hit rate
33% (61/187)
ROI
-6%
Politics149 bets
Hit rate
51% (76/149)
ROI
+21%
Sports57 bets
Hit rate
33% (19/57)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics43 bets
Hit rate
49% (21/43)
ROI
-4%

Track record

41% hit · 177/436

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$5	2.6¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$125	20.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$131	87.3¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	16.6¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$36	71.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$10	67.0¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$196	40.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$112	56.0¢	Won
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$43	21.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$54	21.4¢	Won
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$42	42.4¢	Won
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$257	63.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$489	81.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$466	13.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$49	4.1¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	9.2¢	Lost
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	No	$38	73.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.1k	57.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	25.3¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$20	83.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$43	85.0¢	Won
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$26	66.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$314	25.2¢	Lost
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$27	6.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$27	4.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$1.5k	49.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$8	26.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	5.4¢	Lost
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$197	81.2¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1.5k	41.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$4.4k	67.0¢	Won
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$57	57.1¢	Lost
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$110	55.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$27	4.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$6	1.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$295	30.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$443	30.9¢	Lost

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$125 @ 20.5¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$131 @ 87.3¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$6 @ 16.6¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$36 @ 71.6¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$10 @ 67.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$196 @ 40.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$112 @ 56.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$43 @ 21.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$54 @ 21.4¢
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$42 @ 42.4¢
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$257 @ 63.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$489 @ 81.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$466 @ 13.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$49 @ 4.1¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.2¢
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Won
No$38 @ 73.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.1k @ 57.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 25.3¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Won
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$43 @ 85.0¢
Will Antonio Nusa win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$26 @ 66.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$314 @ 25.2¢
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$27 @ 6.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$27 @ 4.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 49.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$8 @ 26.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.4¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$197 @ 81.2¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1.5k @ 41.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 67.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$57 @ 57.1¢
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$110 @ 55.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$295 @ 30.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$443 @ 30.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.1k	77.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	94.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.6k	70.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.5k	86.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$910	70.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$906	64.7¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$780	86.6¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$592	84.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$586	83.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$518	86.3¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$504	84.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$439	87.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	No	$394	91.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$386	55.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$364	72.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$360	90.0¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?	Politics	No	$360	60.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$341	34.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$299	59.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$282	93.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$270	91.3¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$266	2.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$235	39.1¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$227	90.8¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$219	31.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	No	$180	60.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Geopolitics	No	$173	86.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$172	34.5¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$156	34.1¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$140	70.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$5.1k @ 77.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 94.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.6k @ 70.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$1.5k @ 86.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$910 @ 70.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$906 @ 64.7¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$780 @ 86.6¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$592 @ 84.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$586 @ 83.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$518 @ 86.3¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$504 @ 84.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$439 @ 87.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
No$394 @ 91.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$386 @ 55.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$364 @ 72.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$360 @ 90.0¢
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Politics
No$360 @ 60.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$341 @ 34.1¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Politics
Yes$299 @ 59.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$282 @ 93.9¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$270 @ 91.3¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$266 @ 2.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$235 @ 39.1¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
No$227 @ 90.8¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$219 @ 31.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
No$180 @ 60.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)Geopolitics
No$173 @ 86.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$172 @ 34.5¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
Yes$156 @ 34.1¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$140 @ 70.0¢