0x15ce…d5fa

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x15ceffed7bf820cd2d90f90ea24ae9909f5cd5fa
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.0pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

8% @ 12.3¢

Brier

0.045

Resolved

819

Avg size

$17

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	18% (21/116)	+36%	116
Sports	25% (1/4)	+19%	4
Politics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other116 bets
Hit rate
18% (21/116)
ROI
+36%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+19%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

18% hit · 22/122

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?	Yes	$31	4.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 18?	Yes	$33	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 18?	Yes	$32	12.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6?	No	$842	82.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	$4	5.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	$75	18.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	$101	12.1¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on April 15?	Yes	$6	18.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 21?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 17?	Yes	$34	3.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 22?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?	No	$437	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 17?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 3?	Yes	$8	1.7¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	5.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21?	No	$7	3.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or higher on August 18?	Yes	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?	No	$13	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 16?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$105	0.8¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 18?	Yes	$7	13.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 11?	Yes	$22	13.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 17?	Yes	$12	1.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?	Yes	$248	22.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?	Yes	$21	20.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 21?	Yes	$3	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 13?	Yes	$9	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?	Yes	$42	14.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?	Yes	$8	3.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?	Yes	$50	5.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$50	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on August 14?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 20?	Yes	$56	1.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?	Yes	$16	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?	Yes	$532	54.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?	No	$10	29.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?	Yes	$7	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17?	No	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 30?	No	$13	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	$59	4.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 9?	No	$4	78.6¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on April 15?	Yes	$0	3.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 2?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1?	Yes	$55	2.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?	Yes	$250	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 23?	No	$138	88.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30?	No	$6	39.0¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 20?Lost
Yes$31 @ 4.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 18?Lost
Yes$33 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on August 18?Lost
Yes$32 @ 12.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6?Won
No$842 @ 82.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?Lost
Yes$75 @ 18.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$101 @ 12.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on April 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 18.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$34 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 22?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 7?Won
No$437 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 3?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21?Lost
No$7 @ 3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or higher on August 18?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 12?Lost
No$13 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 16?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$105 @ 0.8¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 18?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 11?Lost
Yes$22 @ 13.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?Lost
Yes$248 @ 22.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?Won
Yes$21 @ 20.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 13?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?Lost
Yes$42 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on August 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 20?Lost
Yes$56 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?Lost
Yes$16 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?Won
Yes$532 @ 54.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?Won
No$10 @ 29.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17?Lost
No$3 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 30?Won
No$13 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?Lost
Yes$59 @ 4.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 9?Won
No$4 @ 78.6¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on April 15?Won
Yes$0 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 2?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 15?Lost
Yes$250 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 23?Won
No$138 @ 88.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30?Won
No$6 @ 39.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	No	$2.9k	86.9¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?	Science	No	$539	92.7¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$472	26.9¢
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?	Science	No	$326	93.7¢
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Science	Yes	$308	26.5¢
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?	Science	No	$225	95.1¢
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$115	4.2¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$59	59.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$38	9.7¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$28	55.0¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$19	21.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$17	11.8¢
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$13	14.5¢
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$8	8.6¢

Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
No$2.9k @ 86.9¢
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?Science
No$539 @ 92.7¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$472 @ 26.9¢
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?Science
No$326 @ 93.7¢
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Science
Yes$308 @ 26.5¢
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?Science
No$225 @ 95.1¢
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$115 @ 4.2¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?Science
No$59 @ 59.2¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$38 @ 9.7¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$28 @ 55.0¢
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$19 @ 21.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$17 @ 11.8¢
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$13 @ 14.5¢
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$8 @ 8.6¢