0x15a8…9829

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x15a819e417bd5da50cba1f4dabb72169c5309829
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+58%

Win rate

40% @ 33.6¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

316

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (71/151)	-3%	151
Sports	15% (4/26)	+129%	26
Politics	67% (10/15)	+56%	15
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other151 bets
Hit rate
47% (71/151)
ROI
-3%
Sports26 bets
Hit rate
15% (4/26)
ROI
+129%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
67% (10/15)
ROI
+56%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 85/193

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	Nuggets	$3	51.0¢	Won
Suns vs. Thunder	Thunder	$10	37.9¢	Lost
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	No	$11	66.4¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$11	50.0¢	Lost
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	$3	53.0¢	Lost
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Texas Rangers	$2	46.0¢	Won
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)	Warriors	$2	45.0¢	Won
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	No	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will Randers FC vs. FC København end in a draw?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?	No	$7	47.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.4¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	Carlos Alcaraz	$2	46.0¢	Lost
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18?	No	$3	53.0¢	Won
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Won
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$29	87.3¢	Won
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Clippers	Warriors	$10	29.5¢	Lost
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$8	1.2¢	Lost
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?	No	$3	63.0¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5	Over	$2	49.0¢	Won
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5	Under	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-12?	No	$7	34.0¢	Won
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Lost
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	LGD Gaming	$2	41.0¢	Won
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Oh My God	$3	55.0¢	Lost
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	No	$12	59.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?	No	$7	71.5¢	Lost
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$26	1.3¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Ducks	Ducks	$4	72.0¢	Lost
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	Suns	$3	53.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	1.8¢	Lost
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-12?	Yes	$3	51.0¢	Won
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?	No	$3	68.0¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$9	49.0¢	Won
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5	Under	$3	56.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$18	52.2¢	Won
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?	No	$12	58.8¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals	Sunrisers Hyderabad	$7	41.6¢	Won

Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Won
Nuggets$3 @ 51.0¢
Suns vs. ThunderLost
Thunder$10 @ 37.9¢
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?Won
No$11 @ 66.4¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$11 @ 50.0¢
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles DodgersLost
Los Angeles Dodgers$3 @ 53.0¢
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles DodgersWon
Texas Rangers$2 @ 46.0¢
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Won
Warriors$2 @ 45.0¢
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?Won
No$4 @ 87.0¢
Will Randers FC vs. FC København end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?Lost
No$7 @ 47.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.4¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerLost
Carlos Alcaraz$2 @ 46.0¢
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18?Won
No$3 @ 53.0¢
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-12?Won
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-04-12?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$29 @ 87.3¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Warriors vs. ClippersLost
Warriors$10 @ 29.5¢
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.2¢
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?Won
No$3 @ 63.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Won
Over$2 @ 49.0¢
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Lost
Under$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-12?Won
No$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-12?Lost
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWon
LGD Gaming$2 @ 41.0¢
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLost
Oh My God$3 @ 55.0¢
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$12 @ 59.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?Lost
No$7 @ 71.5¢
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.3¢
Canucks vs. DucksLost
Ducks$4 @ 72.0¢
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Won
Suns$3 @ 53.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.8¢
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-12?Won
Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?Lost
No$3 @ 68.0¢
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 49.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Won
Under$3 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 52.2¢
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?Won
No$12 @ 58.8¢
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan RoyalsWon
Sunrisers Hyderabad$7 @ 41.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.6¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.6¢
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.6¢
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$3	0.6¢
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$3	0.6¢
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$3	0.6¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	1.6¢
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.5¢
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.5¢
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.5¢
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.8¢

Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢