0x1543…baaf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x15433540ca3794108e602bfd353189519af8baaf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

39% @ 32.5¢

Brier

0.212

Resolved

2223

Avg size

$137

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (57/141)	+9%	141
Politics	37% (14/38)	+39%	38
Sports	18% (3/17)	-67%	17
Tech	36% (5/14)	+47%	14
Geopolitics	17% (1/6)	-48%	6
Crypto	40% (2/5)	+61%	5
Economy	50% (1/2)	+144%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+41%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+115%	1

Other141 bets
Hit rate
40% (57/141)
ROI
+9%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
37% (14/38)
ROI
+39%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
18% (3/17)
ROI
-67%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
+47%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-48%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+61%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+144%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+41%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+115%

Track record

38% hit · 85/225

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5	Over	$996	33.0¢	Won
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	$21	52.0¢	Won
Spread: Knicks (-16.5)	Knicks	$699	7.0¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5	Over	$1.0k	37.0¢	Won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5	No	$757	56.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$165	7.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$850	85.0¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$131	12.9¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5	Over	$1.4k	50.6¢	Won
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	No	$357	49.5¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$525	26.3¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$67	5.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	31.2¢	Lost
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)	Spurs	$667	21.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	33.5¢	Won
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5	Under	$2.3k	46.0¢	Lost
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)	Knicks	$126	17.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	$3.5k	46.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$520	26.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5	Over	$3.1k	51.6¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5	Under	$2.5k	49.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5	Over	$1000	48.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Under	$529	24.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$27	3.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$2.3k	55.6¢	Won
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	Thunder	$57	28.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$1.6k	33.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 15?	Yes	$434	11.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$344	16.7¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	$930	62.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5	Over	$720	48.0¢	Won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	$784	59.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	$2.2k	44.0¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$245	9.8¢	Lost
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	38.8¢	Lost
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)	Knicks	$1.3k	88.0¢	Won
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)	Knicks	$589	20.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$2.4k	89.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$864	11.1¢	Lost
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)	Cavaliers	$238	79.0¢	Won
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)	Pistons	$2.5k	22.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	$581	19.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$185	9.2¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	$506	61.0¢	Lost
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)	Cavaliers	$738	24.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day	Down	$454	46.7¢	Lost
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5	Over	$1.3k	46.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$294	12.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	68.0¢	Won

Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Won
Over$996 @ 33.0¢
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Won
Over$21 @ 52.0¢
Spread: Knicks (-16.5)Lost
Knicks$699 @ 7.0¢
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Won
Over$1.0k @ 37.0¢
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Won
No$757 @ 56.0¢
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde?Lost
Yes$165 @ 7.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$850 @ 85.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$131 @ 12.9¢
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5Won
Over$1.4k @ 50.6¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Won
No$357 @ 49.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$525 @ 26.3¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 5.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 31.2¢
Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Won
Spurs$667 @ 21.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 33.5¢
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5Lost
Under$2.3k @ 46.0¢
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Lost
Knicks$126 @ 17.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 46.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
Yes$520 @ 26.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Won
Over$3.1k @ 51.6¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Lost
Under$2.5k @ 49.0¢
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5Lost
Over$1000 @ 48.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Lost
Under$529 @ 24.8¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$27 @ 3.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 55.6¢
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Won
Thunder$57 @ 28.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$1.6k @ 33.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 15?Lost
Yes$434 @ 11.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$344 @ 16.7¢
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Won
Yes$930 @ 62.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Won
Over$720 @ 48.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Netherlands$784 @ 59.0¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Knicks vs. CavaliersWon
Knicks$2.2k @ 44.0¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$245 @ 9.8¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 38.8¢
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Won
Knicks$1.3k @ 88.0¢
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Lost
Knicks$589 @ 20.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 89.3¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$864 @ 11.1¢
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Won
Cavaliers$238 @ 79.0¢
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Lost
Pistons$2.5k @ 22.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Lost
Yes$581 @ 19.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$185 @ 9.2¢
Rockets vs. LakersLost
Lakers$506 @ 61.0¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Won
Cavaliers$738 @ 24.0¢
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second DayLost
Down$454 @ 46.7¢
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5Lost
Over$1.3k @ 46.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$294 @ 12.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 68.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	Yes	$4.8k	42.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$3.1k	20.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	59.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.3k	39.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	23.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$990	11.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$945	15.5¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$808	2.4¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$800	20.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$744	9.0¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$639	18.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$631	13.3¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$587	29.8¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$586	4.6¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$560	4.7¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$477	5.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$406	18.4¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$373	33.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$312	14.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	Yes	$292	35.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$194	6.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$161	51.0¢
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$140	11.5¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$139	1.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$130	17.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$123	5.0¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?	Politics	Yes	$110	29.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$90	40.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$77	49.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$49	8.0¢

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
Yes$4.8k @ 42.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$3.1k @ 20.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 59.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$1.3k @ 39.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 23.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$990 @ 11.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Economy
Yes$945 @ 15.5¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$808 @ 2.4¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$800 @ 20.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$744 @ 9.0¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Politics
Yes$639 @ 18.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$631 @ 13.3¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$587 @ 29.8¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$586 @ 4.6¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$560 @ 4.7¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$477 @ 5.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$406 @ 18.4¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$373 @ 33.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$312 @ 14.6¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
Yes$292 @ 35.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$194 @ 6.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$161 @ 51.0¢
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$140 @ 11.5¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$139 @ 1.4¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
Yes$130 @ 17.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$123 @ 5.0¢
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Politics
Yes$110 @ 29.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$90 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$77 @ 49.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$49 @ 8.0¢