← Smart money
0x14f3…d33b
SharpEdge
+18.5pp
ROI
+13%
Win rate
84% @ 65.7¢
Brier
0.106
Resolved
38
Avg size
$5
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 75% (6/8) | +23% | 8 |
| Other | 67% (4/6) | -0% | 6 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (6/8)
- ROI
- +23%
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- -0%
Track record
71% hit · 10/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $1 | 27.0¢ | Lost |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | $24 | 68.5¢ | Won |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | $2 | 53.2¢ | Won |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | $10 | 35.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | $15 | 74.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | $1 | 83.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | $2 | 15.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | $55 | 71.8¢ | Won |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | $3 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | $4 | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | $15 | 60.7¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | $4 | 75.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | $9 | 71.1¢ | Won |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | $35 | 86.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
- No$24 @ 68.5¢
- No$2 @ 53.2¢
- Yes$10 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 74.0¢
- No$1 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
- No$55 @ 71.8¢
- Yes$3 @ 87.0¢
- No$4 @ 89.0¢
- No$15 @ 60.7¢
- No$4 @ 75.0¢
- No$9 @ 71.1¢
- No$35 @ 86.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Sports | Yes | $13 | 80.0¢ |
| Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $13 | 66.0¢ |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $7 | 78.8¢ |
| Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $6 | 64.0¢ |
| Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | No | $5 | 79.0¢ |
| Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $4 | 82.2¢ |
| Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $4 | 61.0¢ |
| Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $3 | 53.0¢ |
| Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $2 | 66.8¢ |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $1 | 94.9¢ |
- Yes$13 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 78.8¢
- Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
- No$5 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 82.2¢
- Yes$4 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 66.8¢
- No$1 @ 94.9¢