0x149b…d435

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x149bcbfbdc772d60cdb252c1513405cef7c8d435
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.3pp

ROI

+48%

Win rate

18% @ 22.6¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

1227

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (22/62)	+173%	62
Politics	40% (19/47)	-72%	47
Economy	47% (8/17)	-49%	17
Geopolitics	88% (7/8)	+48%	8
Sports	33% (1/3)	-98%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+34%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other62 bets
Hit rate
35% (22/62)
ROI
+173%
Politics47 bets
Hit rate
40% (19/47)
ROI
-72%
Economy17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
-49%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+48%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-98%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 58/140

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$1	85.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$1	76.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$2	62.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$17	88.1¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$3	15.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$3	12.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$2	3.7¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	No	$2	79.8¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$2	16.5¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$1	85.7¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$2	26.0¢	Won
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	4.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3	6.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$2	87.2¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Won
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$3	78.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$9	8.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$1	60.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$7	66.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$15	24.9¢	Lost
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$2	83.9¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$6	80.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$42	18.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$3	1.2¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$10	56.6¢	Won
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	$10	38.3¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	66.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$2	11.6¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$4	24.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$4	50.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	$7	28.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$18	2.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$85	12.0¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Predators vs. Stars	Predators	$45	58.6¢	Lost
Predators vs. Stars	Stars	$1	30.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$3	49.6¢	Won

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$2 @ 62.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 48.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$17 @ 88.1¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.7¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Won
No$2 @ 79.8¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 16.5¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.7¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.8¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
No$1 @ 32.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
No$2 @ 87.2¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$3 @ 78.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 8.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$7 @ 66.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 24.9¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 83.9¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 80.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 18.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 56.6¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 38.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 66.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$4 @ 24.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$4 @ 50.6¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 28.0¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$18 @ 2.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 48.0¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$85 @ 12.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Predators vs. StarsLost
Predators$45 @ 58.6¢
Predators vs. StarsWon
Stars$1 @ 30.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$3 @ 49.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$86	10.0¢
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$14	0.3¢
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$12	7.0¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$11	0.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$9	89.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Politics	Yes	$8	40.6¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$8	0.3¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$7	0.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$7	93.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$6	12.5¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$5	74.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$4	41.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4	25.8¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$4	79.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	50.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3	76.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$3	44.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	Politics	No	$3	94.5¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$2	0.6¢
Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$2	95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	95.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2	4.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	83.9¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$2	45.2¢
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$1	97.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	56.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	52.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR?	Politics	No	$1	99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + AUR?	Politics	No	$1	99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR + AUR?	Politics	No	$1	99.7¢

Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$86 @ 10.0¢
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$14 @ 0.3¢
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?Politics
Yes$12 @ 7.0¢
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$11 @ 0.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 89.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Politics
Yes$8 @ 40.6¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$7 @ 0.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 93.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$6 @ 12.5¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 74.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$4 @ 41.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4 @ 25.8¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$4 @ 79.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 50.5¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3 @ 76.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$3 @ 44.3¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Politics
No$3 @ 94.5¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 95.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2 @ 4.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 83.9¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$2 @ 45.2¢
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?Politics
No$1 @ 97.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR?Politics
No$1 @ 99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + AUR?Politics
No$1 @ 99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR + AUR?Politics
No$1 @ 99.7¢