0x1424…2c7f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1424a9e0a0def5a86c3c6cffbd8b6c65e1b12c7f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

33% @ 29.1¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

618

Avg size

$169

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (28/74)	+48%	74
Politics	23% (3/13)	-52%	13
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+20%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	-9%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other74 bets
Hit rate
38% (28/74)
ROI
+48%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
23% (3/13)
ROI
-52%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+20%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-9%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 34/93

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	$4.8k	48.1¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	$6.1k	61.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?	Yes	$663	4.6¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$100	0.2¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$1.3k	54.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$250	3.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$84	8.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$94	4.9¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$100	6.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$250	30.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	No	$1.7k	62.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Yes	$911	18.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	Yes	$45	2.6¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$4.5k	67.8¢	Won
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	$258	7.1¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$113	18.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?	Yes	$5	10.9¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 23?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	$258	15.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	18.2¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?	Yes	$497	49.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$250	14.0¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2.8k	18.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	No	$2.1k	79.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	Yes	$1.5k	38.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$998	83.5¢	Won
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?	Yes	$520	28.2¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?	Yes	$12	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	No	$1.1k	10.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?	Yes	$1000	88.0¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$743	29.6¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?	Yes	$3	2.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$993	19.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$500	66.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?	Yes	$1.2k	86.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Yes	$1.1k	24.7¢	Lost
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	Yes	$4.8k	36.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$2.0k	12.6¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?	No	$150	0.8¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	No	$250	31.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?	Yes	$42	6.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Yes	$1.5k	23.3¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?	Yes	$361	30.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?	Yes	$525	42.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	55.9¢	Won
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?	Yes	$1	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$267	87.6¢	Won

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Won
Yes$4.8k @ 48.1¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Lost
No$6.1k @ 61.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$663 @ 4.6¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$100 @ 0.2¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 54.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$250 @ 3.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 8.4¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$94 @ 4.9¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 6.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 30.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Won
No$1.7k @ 62.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
Yes$911 @ 18.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 2.6¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$4.5k @ 67.8¢
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Lost
Yes$258 @ 7.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$113 @ 18.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.9¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 23?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Won
Yes$258 @ 15.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 18.2¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Won
Yes$497 @ 49.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$250 @ 14.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 18.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Won
No$2.1k @ 79.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 38.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$998 @ 83.5¢
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?Lost
Yes$520 @ 28.2¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Lost
No$1.1k @ 10.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?Won
Yes$1000 @ 88.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$743 @ 29.6¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$993 @ 19.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$500 @ 66.1¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 24.7¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 36.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 12.6¢
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?Lost
No$150 @ 0.8¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Won
No$250 @ 31.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 6.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 23.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Won
Yes$361 @ 30.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Won
Yes$525 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 55.9¢
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$267 @ 87.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Tech	No	$6.1k	61.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4.8k	48.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4.1k	92.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?	Other	Yes	$409	4.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	Yes	$192	8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Other	Yes	$175	17.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	Yes	$28	7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?	Other	Yes	$16	10.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $148 Week of November 9 2026?	Business	Yes	$4	14.0¢

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Tech
No$6.1k @ 61.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Tech
Yes$4.8k @ 48.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$4.1k @ 92.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?Other
Yes$409 @ 4.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
Yes$192 @ 8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?Other
Yes$175 @ 17.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
Yes$28 @ 7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?Other
Yes$16 @ 10.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $148 Week of November 9 2026?Business
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢