0x133a…8397

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x133a983218418809df1a1fcf71e984f1cb448397
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

28% @ 19.5¢

Brier

0.068

Resolved

189

Avg size

$40

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (12/22)	+46%	22
Politics	23% (3/13)	-41%	13
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+185%	1

Other22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
+46%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
23% (3/13)
ROI
-41%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+185%

Track record

40% hit · 16/40

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$110	61.7¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$50	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$138	43.0¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$56	0.5¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$55	2.1¢	Lost
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$37	53.4¢	Won
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	$1	4.7¢	Lost
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$214	0.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$233	4.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$282	31.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$60	39.3¢	Won
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$179	0.6¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$50	12.0¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$5	3.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$20	3.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$1.1k	56.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$28	31.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$150	48.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$5	0.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.3k	57.5¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: June	Nothing	$10	88.1¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$316	3.6¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	$387	14.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?	No	$10	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$50	8.3¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$158	49.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$170	52.4¢	Won
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$20	68.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	$29	38.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$10	41.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$410	64.6¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$130	9.2¢	Lost
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	$410	35.1¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$43	0.2¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	$20	85.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	$692	2.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	$707	63.6¢	Won

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$110 @ 61.7¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$138 @ 43.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$56 @ 0.5¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$55 @ 2.1¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$37 @ 53.4¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$214 @ 0.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$233 @ 4.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$282 @ 31.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$60 @ 39.3¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$179 @ 0.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$20 @ 3.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$28 @ 31.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$150 @ 48.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$5 @ 0.5¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 57.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: JuneWon
Nothing$10 @ 88.1¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$316 @ 3.6¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Lost
Yes$387 @ 14.8¢
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$158 @ 49.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 52.4¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 68.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 38.0¢
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 41.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$410 @ 64.6¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$130 @ 9.2¢
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?Won
Yes$410 @ 35.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$43 @ 0.2¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
No$20 @ 85.0¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Lost
Yes$692 @ 2.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: MarchWon
Nothing$707 @ 63.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	15.8¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?	Politics	No	$1.2k	76.7¢
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$679	2.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Politics	Yes	$383	70.5¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$361	98.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$224	4.2¢
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	Politics	No	$190	11.9¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$183	48.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$146	46.5¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$119	14.1¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$100	32.4¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$100	28.7¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Politics	Yes	$50	34.0¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	16.1¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	44.6¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	94.0¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	24.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	No	$21	2.8¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$20	2.2¢
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	—	No	$20	93.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$20	4.9¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$20	14.0¢
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$19	60.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$19	21.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: June	—	Nothing	$17	90.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$16	3.2¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?	Politics	Yes	$11	16.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$10	46.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	45.0¢
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?	—	Yes	$5	9.0¢

Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 15.8¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?Politics
No$1.2k @ 76.7¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics
Yes$679 @ 2.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?Politics
Yes$383 @ 70.5¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$361 @ 98.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$224 @ 4.2¢
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Politics
No$190 @ 11.9¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$183 @ 48.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$146 @ 46.5¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$119 @ 14.1¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$100 @ 32.4¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$100 @ 28.7¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Politics
Yes$50 @ 34.0¢
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 16.1¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 44.6¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Geopolitics
Yes$25 @ 94.0¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace ParlayGeopolitics
Yes$25 @ 24.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
No$21 @ 2.8¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$20 @ 2.2¢
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?—
No$20 @ 93.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
Yes$20 @ 4.9¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?Politics
Yes$20 @ 14.0¢
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Sports
Yes$19 @ 60.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
Yes$19 @ 21.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: June—
Nothing$17 @ 90.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?Politics
Yes$16 @ 3.2¢
Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics
Yes$11 @ 16.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 45.0¢
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?—
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢