0x133a…8397

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x133a983218418809df1a1fcf71e984f1cb448397
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

31% @ 21.7¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

173

Avg size

$44

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (20/36)	+43%	36
Politics	29% (7/24)	-44%	24
Sports	41% (7/17)	+199%	17
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-83%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+185%	1

Other36 bets
Hit rate
56% (20/36)
ROI
+43%
Politics24 bets
Hit rate
29% (7/24)
ROI
-44%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
41% (7/17)
ROI
+199%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-83%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+185%

Track record

43% hit · 36/83

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?	Yes	$14	92.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5	81.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	19.4¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$119	14.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$33	99.2¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$50	66.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$5	59.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	6.3¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	2.2¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	7.8¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$40	52.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	$9	65.2¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$40	39.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$19	21.7¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$10	56.4¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	No	$2	93.0¢	Lost
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$10	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?	Yes	$21	81.2¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$20	76.5¢	Won
Trump out as President by July 31?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$10	94.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?	Yes	$20	14.0¢	Lost
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	0.3¢	Lost
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	0.3¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Won
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	12.7¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	0.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	45.0¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$190	36.7¢	Won
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	$361	98.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	$190	11.9¢	Lost
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	$25	94.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$20	4.9¢	Lost
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	$19	60.0¢	Won
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$6	58.0¢	Lost
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?	No	$81	99.5¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$110	61.7¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$50	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$138	43.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$55	2.1¢	Lost
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$37	53.4¢	Won
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$214	0.5¢	Lost
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	Yes	$50	20.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$282	31.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$60	39.3¢	Won
Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	$179	0.6¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$140	33.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$50	12.0¢	Lost

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?Won
Yes$14 @ 92.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$5 @ 81.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.4¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$119 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$33 @ 99.2¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$50 @ 66.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$10 @ 34.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$5 @ 59.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.3¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.2¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.8¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Won
Yes$40 @ 52.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-09?Won
Yes$9 @ 65.2¢
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?Lost
Yes$40 @ 39.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$19 @ 21.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$10 @ 56.4¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 93.0¢
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$10 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in July 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 81.2¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$20 @ 76.5¢
Trump out as President by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$10 @ 94.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 14.0¢
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.3¢
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 12.7¢
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.6¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 45.0¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$190 @ 36.7¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?Won
Yes$361 @ 98.0¢
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?Lost
No$190 @ 11.9¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$25 @ 94.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.9¢
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
Yes$19 @ 60.0¢
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 58.0¢
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?Won
No$81 @ 99.5¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$110 @ 61.7¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$138 @ 43.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$55 @ 2.1¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$37 @ 53.4¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$214 @ 0.5¢
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 20.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$282 @ 31.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$60 @ 39.3¢
Trump out as President by May 31?Lost
Yes$179 @ 0.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$140 @ 33.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	13.6¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?	Politics	No	$1.3k	77.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$806	25.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$256	28.8¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$193	45.5¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Politics	No	$127	37.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	98.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$73	93.8¢
Trump out as President by September 30?	—	Yes	$44	1.0¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	24.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20	20.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$17	3.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$10	50.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$10	46.0¢
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	—	No	$10	42.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$5	41.0¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$5	6.7¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$5	2.2¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	No	$1	57.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	4.7¢

Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 13.6¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?Politics
No$1.3k @ 77.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$806 @ 25.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$256 @ 28.8¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$193 @ 45.5¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Politics
No$127 @ 37.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 98.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$73 @ 93.8¢
Trump out as President by September 30?—
Yes$44 @ 1.0¢
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboGeopolitics
Yes$25 @ 24.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20 @ 20.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?Politics
Yes$17 @ 3.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?—
No$10 @ 42.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$5 @ 6.7¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?Politics
Yes$5 @ 2.2¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech
No$1 @ 57.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢