0x1229…df38

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1229233bad2fd7462955c6383448904b5432df38
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+21.2pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

60% @ 39.0¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

1200

Avg size

$70

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (11/29)	+37%	29
Other	67% (14/21)	+23%	21
Sports	29% (2/7)	+68%	7
Economy	50% (3/6)	-64%	6
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-49%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+77%	2
Business	100% (1/1)	+28%	1

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
38% (11/29)
ROI
+37%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
67% (14/21)
ROI
+23%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+68%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-64%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-49%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+77%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%

Track record

49% hit · 34/69

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$4.2k	59.5¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$122	15.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$88	8.6¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3.8k	80.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$2.8k	34.5¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	$321	78.0¢	Won
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?	No	$211	84.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026?	Yes	$116	57.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	$51	49.5¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	$541	61.9¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$220	0.4¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.0k	63.7¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$790	0.6¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$116	38.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?	No	$88	39.9¢	Won
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	$5.1k	84.3¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	No	$281	88.9¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$187	0.7¢	Lost
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$179	1.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September 2026?	Yes	$17	33.2¢	Lost
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$20.1k	50.2¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$249	35.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	$1.5k	78.8¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?	No	$105	69.0¢	Won
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$73	6.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	$352	68.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$30	60.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?	Yes	$7	19.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?	No	$34	68.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	$1.4k	67.6¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$4	46.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$172	16.8¢	Won
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$20	65.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	$228	7.3¢	Lost
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	$91	2.0¢	Lost
Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$40	80.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$727	36.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$12.2k	46.3¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	No	$3.4k	86.8¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?	Yes	$45	15.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$560	55.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	No	$14	13.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$898	44.5¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?	No	$52	53.4¢	Won
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?	Yes	$360	24.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$36	70.7¢	Won

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$4.2k @ 59.5¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$122 @ 15.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$88 @ 8.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3.8k @ 80.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 34.5¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Won
Yes$321 @ 78.0¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?Won
No$211 @ 84.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026?Won
Yes$116 @ 57.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Lost
No$51 @ 49.5¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?Won
Yes$541 @ 61.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$220 @ 0.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$1.0k @ 63.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$790 @ 0.6¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$116 @ 38.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Won
No$88 @ 39.9¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Won
Yes$5.1k @ 84.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?Won
No$281 @ 88.9¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$187 @ 0.7¢
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$179 @ 1.7¢
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 33.2¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$20.1k @ 50.2¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$249 @ 35.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Won
No$1.5k @ 78.8¢
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?Won
No$105 @ 69.0¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$73 @ 6.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Won
No$352 @ 68.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$30 @ 60.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?Lost
Yes$7 @ 19.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Won
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 67.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$4 @ 46.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$172 @ 16.8¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
No$20 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Lost
Yes$228 @ 7.3¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Lost
Yes$91 @ 2.0¢
Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$727 @ 36.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$12.2k @ 46.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?Won
No$3.4k @ 86.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?Lost
Yes$45 @ 15.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$560 @ 55.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Lost
No$14 @ 13.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$898 @ 44.5¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Won
No$52 @ 53.4¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Lost
Yes$360 @ 24.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$36 @ 70.7¢

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