0x1104…002a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1104d937f3635fc20f42d56c2855e72f0ec5002a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

48% @ 41.8¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

2196

Avg size

$146

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (40/82)	-2%	82
Politics	60% (34/57)	+34%	57
Sports	33% (9/27)	-13%	27
Geopolitics	79% (11/14)	+17%	14

Other82 bets
Hit rate
49% (40/82)
ROI
-2%
Politics57 bets
Hit rate
60% (34/57)
ROI
+34%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
33% (9/27)
ROI
-13%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+17%

Track record

52% hit · 94/180

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	No	$134	94.0¢	Won
Will 7+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$7	14.4¢	Lost
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Yes	$200	50.8¢	Lost
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	$999	18.9¢	Lost
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?	Yes	$123	8.6¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$2.6k	79.9¢	Won
Will England win?	Yes	$352	73.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	83.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$3	88.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$1.7k	73.0¢	Lost
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5	Under	$22	84.5¢	Won
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	No	$370	88.9¢	Won
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	$14	71.0¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$282	8.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	79.1¢	Won
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$64	64.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$4.0k	87.9¢	Won
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$1.3k	64.1¢	Won
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	$704	80.7¢	Won
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$82	34.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$3.7k	46.1¢	Won
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half	No	$1.8k	66.2¢	Lost
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$1.8k	88.6¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$639	77.5¢	Won
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	$6	80.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$1.1k	10.4¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$11.6k	87.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$1.9k	85.5¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.1k	76.4¢	Won
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$6.1k	47.9¢	Won
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.2k	64.9¢	Won
Will Italy win?	No	$293	72.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$1.5k	4.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.9k	79.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$57	19.0¢	Lost
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	$1.5k	71.9¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$88	22.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$1.4k	89.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	No	$50	70.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$844	89.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	$225	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$316	19.1¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?	Yes	$28	8.3¢	Lost
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?	No	$2.2k	76.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	$13	4.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$740	45.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$268	30.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	Yes	$249	5.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	82.0¢	Won

Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Won
No$134 @ 94.0¢
Will 7+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$7 @ 14.4¢
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?Lost
Yes$200 @ 50.8¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$999 @ 18.9¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?Lost
Yes$123 @ 8.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$2.6k @ 79.9¢
Will England win?Lost
Yes$352 @ 73.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 83.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 88.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 73.0¢
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5Won
Under$22 @ 84.5¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Won
No$370 @ 88.9¢
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
Yes$14 @ 71.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$282 @ 8.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 79.1¢
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$64 @ 64.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$4.0k @ 87.9¢
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 64.1¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Won
Yes$704 @ 80.7¢
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$82 @ 34.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 46.1¢
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First HalfLost
No$1.8k @ 66.2¢
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 88.6¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$639 @ 77.5¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 80.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 10.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$11.6k @ 87.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 85.5¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 76.4¢
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 47.9¢
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.2k @ 64.9¢
Will Italy win?Lost
No$293 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 4.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.9k @ 79.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$57 @ 19.0¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 71.9¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$88 @ 22.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$1.4k @ 89.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 70.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$844 @ 89.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Won
No$225 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
Yes$316 @ 19.1¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?Lost
Yes$28 @ 8.3¢
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Won
No$2.2k @ 76.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will the match end in a draw?Lost
Yes$13 @ 4.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$740 @ 45.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$268 @ 30.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Lost
Yes$249 @ 5.3¢
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 82.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.3k	77.4¢

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.3k @ 77.4¢