0x10d7…eb3b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x10d7853322eceb2e73f3e386e03056ae688aeb3b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.8pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

48% @ 40.8¢

Brier

0.241

Resolved

561

Avg size

$34

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (100/204)	-11%	204
Politics	49% (35/71)	+289%	71
Sports	13% (3/24)	+34%	24
Geopolitics	30% (3/10)	-7%	10
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other204 bets
Hit rate
49% (100/204)
ROI
-11%
Politics71 bets
Hit rate
49% (35/71)
ROI
+289%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
13% (3/24)
ROI
+34%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-7%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

45% hit · 141/310

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	$4	44.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?	No	$13	30.6¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	5.1¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	9.3¢	Lost
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	20.0¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NVIDIA" in September?	No	$3	64.0¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$8	25.0¢	Won
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?	No	$15	19.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	Yes	$33	83.6¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in April?	Yes	$18	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	No	$63	82.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	42.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?	No	$10	70.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?	No	$25	56.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?	Yes	$25	80.1¢	Won
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	Yes	$15	69.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$300	89.0¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$40	78.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$30	90.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$10	7.5¢	Lost
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?	No	$35	72.6¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$21	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$30	78.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$70	28.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$800	61.5¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 1?	Yes	$13	1.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?	No	$21	55.3¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$5	0.1¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$8	20.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	$5	60.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$80	43.5¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$27	57.4¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$60	46.8¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$64	36.0¢	Lost
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	No	$10	17.3¢	Won
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	Yes	$23	31.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	0.3¢	Won
Will King Charles say "Healthcare" during State Opening?	Yes	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$30	42.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$33	74.1¢	Won
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	Yes	$13	63.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$140	74.8¢	Won
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?	Yes	$2	28.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	No	$30	79.0¢	Won
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$30	74.9¢	Won

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Lost
No$10 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 44.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Won
No$13 @ 30.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.3¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 20.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "NVIDIA" in September?Lost
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 25.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?Lost
No$15 @ 19.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Won
Yes$33 @ 83.6¢
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in April?Won
Yes$18 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 82.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 42.2¢
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Won
No$10 @ 70.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Lost
No$25 @ 56.0¢
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 80.1¢
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$300 @ 89.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 78.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$30 @ 90.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.5¢
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31?Won
No$35 @ 72.6¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 78.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$70 @ 28.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$800 @ 61.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 1?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.5¢
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?Won
No$21 @ 55.3¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$5 @ 0.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Starmer say "BMA" or "British Medical Association" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
No$5 @ 60.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$80 @ 43.5¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$27 @ 57.4¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 46.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 36.0¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 17.3¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 31.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 0.3¢
Will King Charles say "Healthcare" during State Opening?Lost
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$30 @ 42.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$33 @ 74.1¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Won
Yes$13 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 74.8¢
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 79.0¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 74.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$25	52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	15.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$19	7.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Politics	Yes	$17	13.6¢
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?	Politics	No	$15	81.6¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Politics	No	$15	51.0¢
Any G20 leader out in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	26.9¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Politics	Yes	$14	5.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Politics	No	$13	9.1¢
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	19.4¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	39.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	21.9¢
Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	3.5¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3	4.7¢
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	13.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2	1.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	0.4¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Qatar by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.3¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.5¢

Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 52.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$19 @ 7.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
Yes$17 @ 13.6¢
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 81.6¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Politics
No$15 @ 51.0¢
Any G20 leader out in 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Politics
Yes$14 @ 5.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
No$13 @ 9.1¢
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 19.4¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 39.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 21.9¢
Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 3.5¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$3 @ 4.7¢
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?Politics
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Qatar by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢