← Smart money
0x1057…9ea5
ProfitableEdge
-11.6pp
ROI
+18%
Win rate
57% @ 68.8¢
Brier
0.244
Resolved
804
Avg size
$504
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 25% (1/4) | -80% | 4 |
| Other | 75% (3/4) | -33% | 4 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | +40% | 2 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +15% | 1 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- -80%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- -33%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +40%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +15%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 6/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | $20.4k | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? | No | $5.2k | 89.2¢ | Won |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | $1.5k | 42.9¢ | Lost |
| Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic | Novak Djokovic | $19.8k | 66.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | $3 | 68.3¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | $107.0k | 87.3¢ | Won |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | $17.9k | 75.5¢ | Lost |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | Max Holloway | $214.7k | 65.5¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | $19.1k | 77.3¢ | Lost |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | No | $61 | 53.0¢ | Lost |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto | Something | $5 | 8.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | $3.9k | 85.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$20.4k @ 85.0¢
- No$5.2k @ 89.2¢
- No$1.5k @ 42.9¢
- Novak Djokovic$19.8k @ 66.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 68.3¢
- No$107.0k @ 87.3¢
- No$17.9k @ 75.5¢
- Max Holloway$214.7k @ 65.5¢
- No$19.1k @ 77.3¢
- No$61 @ 53.0¢
- Something$5 @ 8.6¢
- No$3.9k @ 85.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Politics | No | $164.0k | 80.0¢ |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | Culture | No | $52.5k | 89.2¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | No | $16.6k | 83.0¢ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Politics | No | $3.9k | 85.0¢ |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto | Crypto | Nothing | $153 | 93.0¢ |
| Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026? | Culture | Yes | $9 | 89.0¢ |
| Elon Bull Run Combo | Tech | No | $4 | 84.0¢ |
- No$164.0k @ 80.0¢
- No$52.5k @ 89.2¢
- No$16.6k @ 83.0¢
- No$3.9k @ 85.0¢
- Nothing$153 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
- No$4 @ 84.0¢