0x1044…8ceb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x10445fd428f2293dec2d117f3cf75f9c57d88ceb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

39% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

212

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (45/95)	+18%	95
Politics	56% (18/32)	+35%	32
Sports	30% (6/20)	-22%	20
Science	11% (1/9)	-80%	9
Crypto	44% (4/9)	-47%	9
Tech	25% (1/4)	-13%	4
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	-71%	4
Business	67% (2/3)	-16%	3

Other95 bets
Hit rate
47% (45/95)
ROI
+18%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
56% (18/32)
ROI
+35%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
30% (6/20)
ROI
-22%
Science9 bets
Hit rate
11% (1/9)
ROI
-80%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-47%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-13%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-71%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-16%

Track record

44% hit · 78/176

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26?	No	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$9	2.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Karmine Corp	$3	42.0¢	Won
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Movistar KOI	$3	18.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$3	82.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$3	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?	No	$1	11.0¢	Lost
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming	$3	66.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$3	57.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	68.0¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Hurricanes	$4	59.0¢	Won
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$2	34.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June?	No	$5	72.0¢	Won
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$5	53.0¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	$6	86.0¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$35	1.9¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	No	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo	Adolfo Vallejo	$4	62.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$4	46.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	76.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	23.6¢	Lost
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$2	3.5¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$2	7.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?	No	$4	48.6¢	Won
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Kiwoom DRX Challengers	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$5	31.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	12.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?	No	$2	28.4¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$13	73.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	No	$3	35.0¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?	No	$11	80.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$4	53.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$25	69.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$4	49.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	$2	29.8¢	Lost
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	Under	$4	56.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims)	Rodrigo Vera	$4	50.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	$4	63.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	$4	59.0¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26?Lost
No$1 @ 19.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$9 @ 2.6¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20?Lost
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerWon
Karmine Corp$3 @ 42.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerLost
Movistar KOI$3 @ 18.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$3 @ 82.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11?Lost
No$1 @ 11.0¢
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWon
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming$3 @ 66.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
Yes$3 @ 57.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$4 @ 68.0¢
Hurricanes vs. CanadiensWon
Hurricanes$4 @ 59.0¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June?Won
No$5 @ 72.0¢
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$4 @ 41.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$5 @ 53.0¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?Won
No$6 @ 86.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$35 @ 1.9¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Lost
No$1 @ 45.0¢
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo VallejoWon
Adolfo Vallejo$4 @ 62.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?Won
Yes$4 @ 46.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.6¢
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?Won
No$4 @ 48.6¢
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 WinnerLost
Kiwoom DRX Challengers$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?Won
No$2 @ 28.4¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$13 @ 73.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$3 @ 35.0¢
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.6¢
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?Won
No$11 @ 80.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$4 @ 53.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$25 @ 69.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$4 @ 49.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 29.8¢
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Won
Under$4 @ 56.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims)Won
Rodrigo Vera$4 @ 50.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Lost
Yes$4 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 WinnerWon
Karmine Corp$4 @ 59.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$32	15.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$24	87.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$21	85.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Politics	No	$19	56.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$18	9.9¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	50.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$16	18.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$15	91.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$14	96.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$13	12.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$13	17.4¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$12	8.6¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$11	14.8¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$10	88.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	6.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$9	2.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	73.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$9	8.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$9	71.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$8	73.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	73.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28?	—	No	$8	68.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	74.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	—	No	$8	97.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$8	50.1¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	97.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat?	Politics	No	$7	93.2¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	—	No	$7	88.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$7	17.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$6	16.9¢

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$32 @ 15.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$24 @ 87.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$21 @ 85.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Politics
No$19 @ 56.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$18 @ 9.9¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 50.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$16 @ 18.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 91.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$14 @ 96.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$13 @ 12.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$13 @ 17.4¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$12 @ 8.6¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$11 @ 14.8¢
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 6.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 2.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 73.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 71.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$8 @ 73.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 73.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28?—
No$8 @ 68.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 74.0¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?—
No$8 @ 97.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$8 @ 50.1¢
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 97.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat?Politics
No$7 @ 93.2¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?—
No$7 @ 88.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?Politics
Yes$7 @ 17.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$6 @ 16.9¢