0x0c93…aafa

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c935d81782c0fa0192dd5d37df0f6c9f1d7aafa
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.5pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

51% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

548

Avg size

$16

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (31/76)	+36%	76
Politics	33% (4/12)	-42%	12
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-4%	3
Economy	67% (2/3)	+10%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-14%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other76 bets
Hit rate
41% (31/76)
ROI
+36%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-42%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-4%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+10%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-14%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 39/97

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$25	74.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$22	52.7¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$4	50.7¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$45	12.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$47	85.9¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$76	26.3¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$31	79.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$127	33.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$60	2.3¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	No	$3	86.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	Yes	$112	4.7¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$11	3.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$4	6.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$32	10.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$24	39.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$67	45.5¢	Won
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	Yes	$25	7.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	5.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$46	2.6¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$11	22.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	Yes	$179	15.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$180	84.2¢	Won
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	No	$48	85.6¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$5	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$635	23.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$208	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1.2k	26.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$87	58.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$54	33.7¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$21	23.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	24.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$231	85.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$187	10.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$64	48.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$59	52.3¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$21	86.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?	No	$5	31.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?	Yes	$4	38.0¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$9	32.1¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$230	33.3¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$505	66.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$513	86.6¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$88	37.5¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$103	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$89	38.4¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$19	54.1¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	Yes	$4	42.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$112	46.7¢	Lost

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$25 @ 74.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$22 @ 52.7¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$4 @ 50.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$45 @ 12.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 85.9¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 26.3¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 79.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$127 @ 33.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 2.3¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Won
No$3 @ 86.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Lost
Yes$112 @ 4.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$11 @ 3.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$4 @ 6.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 10.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$24 @ 39.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$67 @ 45.5¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 7.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 5.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$46 @ 2.6¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Lost
Yes$179 @ 15.2¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$180 @ 84.2¢
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Won
No$48 @ 85.6¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$635 @ 23.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$208 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 26.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 58.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 33.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 23.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$80 @ 24.6¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$231 @ 85.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$187 @ 10.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$64 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$59 @ 52.3¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$21 @ 86.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Won
No$5 @ 31.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 38.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$9 @ 32.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$230 @ 33.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$505 @ 66.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$513 @ 86.6¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$88 @ 37.5¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$103 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$89 @ 38.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$19 @ 54.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Lost
Yes$4 @ 42.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$112 @ 46.7¢

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